ACC Bowl Week Primer

By Brandon Rink
SouthernPigskin.com

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New Year’s Eve features a conference bowl twin-bill with Georgia Tech taking on Utah in El Paso’s Sun Bowl, while Virginia tries to cap a surprise season against Auburn in Atlanta.

But wait – there’s more, two BCS bowl games for the first time in ACC history headline the final week of college football.

Virginia Tech goes first in the Sugar Bowl, matching up with Michigan and dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson.

Clemson closes the conference bowl season in a battle of electric spread offenses against Big East champ West Virginia.

Breaking down ACC bowl week two…

Sat: Dec. 31 – Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5), 2 ET

14-7. 24-14. 38-3.

That’s Georgia Tech’s bowl game finals in the Paul Johnson era – all losses.

Not pretty.

Do teams figure out Paul Johnson’s scheme with the extra time? Or have the Yellow Jackets just not been prepared? (Probably a combo of both)

Either way, a Georgia Tech team that started strong, and stumbled to the finish hits El Paso to take on Utah, who won five of six down the stretch before a terrible home loss to Colorado (which spoiled Utah’s bid for the PAC-12 South title).

But postseason success is the name of the game for the Utes, who before facing an angry Boise State team last year, won nine-straight bowl games.

The showdown here comes between the spread option Jackets’ attack (third nationally in rushing offense, 316.83 yards per game) against Utah’s 7th-ranked rush defense (97 yards per game) in the nation.

The Utes boast the No. 1 scoring defense in the PAC-12 (19.7 points per game, 18th nationally).

They’ve needed the defense to bail them out this season with the worst total offense out West (308.7 YPG, 110th nationally).

Running back John White anchors the Utah attack, rushing for 1,404 yards and 14 touchdowns. Before an ankle injury in the Colorado loss, White had rushed for 185 or more yards in two and over 100 in each of his last four games.

Johnson’s track record in bowl games should leave you a little weary here, but overall, Georgia Tech appears to be the better team. Five of Utah’s seven wins came against opponents who didn’t make a bowl, which means their defensive stats are a bit inflated.

This is a better Yellow Jackets team than last season, and has a better bowl matchup than a LSU or Iowa that could control the line of scrimmage against them. Slight…slight edge to the Georgia Tech in El Paso.

Pick: Georgia Tech 24-20

Chick-Fil-A: Dec. 31 – Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5), 7:30 ET

We all had this, right?

Virginia, who hadn’t made a bowl since 2007, making the ACC’s second-best bowl, and facing the defending National Champs – not quite what pigskin prognosticators had preseason, but here we are, and it could be a pretty good game.

After a 2-2 start, the Cavaliers got hot – taking six of their next seven, including three on the road, to clinch that elusive bowl berth and play for the Coastal at home against Virginia Tech. But the Cinderella season met a thud of a finish, shut out 38-0 by the Hokies.

Life after Cam Newton didn’t treat Auburn well in the SEC this season – losing five games by a combined 27.8 points per. After finishing 8th in total offense last year, the Tigers dropped to 104th this season – 82nd in scoring offense.

Add to that, one of the few brights spots, leading rusher Michael Dyer (1,242 yards/10 TDs), is suspended for the game, and oh, offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn coaching his last game as a Tiger – taking a huge paycut to coach Arkansas State…yeah, Auburn has a few distractions on offense.

The Tigers’ defense has already lost its defensive coordinator, in former Duke head coach Ted Roof, after struggling to 11th in the SEC in total defense and 80th nationally in scoring defense.

Virginia’s three-headed monster at running back will look to expose Auburn’s weakest spot (allowing 194.8 rushing yards per game), while quarterback Michael Rocco hopes to shake off the two pick-no touchdown game against the Hokies to close the season.

I saw this Auburn team early on this season in Death Valley against Clemson, and by far, the one guy that impressed me was Michael Dyer (frankly, if they don’t stop giving him the ball…that game could’ve been closer). That’s going to be a huge loss, and overall, though Virginia is a slight underdog…they should win. I honestly don’t see an excuse for them not too except this is Mike London’s first bowl as a head coach.

Pick: Virginia 27-23

Sugar: Jan. 3 – Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2), 8:30 ET

Will Virginia Tech play like they deserve this bowl game?

That’s the critical question, after its BCS bowl bid was highly-questioned in the wake of a 38-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

No matter who deserves it – we could be in store for a good one between Michigan’s rushing attack, fueled by junior quarterback Denard Robinson, and Virginia Tech’s running game of its own, anchored by junior running back David Wilson.

Robinson rushed for 1,163 yards and 16 touchdowns – passed for 2,056 yards, 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season. He was joined in the 1,000 yard rusher club by junior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,098 yards), who punched in 10 scores as well.

The Wolverines started and finished strong this season – taking six-straight to open it up and wins over three bowl teams down the stretch (at Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State).

If it wasn’t for Clemson, I guess Virginia Tech would be undefeated – losing 23-3 in Blacksburg and 38-10 in Charlotte to the Tigers. The constant in the two losses was Clemson just dominating the Hokies’ offensive line, first, in the second half of game one, and the whole game in part two.

While we’re dwelling on the negative, we’d be remiss to not mention Virginia Tech’s last BCS stint, a 40-12 loss to Stanford in the Orange Bowl in 2010. The Hokies had no running game to speak of (34 carries for 66 yards) , and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck eviscerated the defense for 4 touchdown passes and running backs Stepfan Taylor/Jeremy Stewart combined for 213 rushing yards in the blowout.

Hokies wide receiver Danny Coale talked at ACC media days this July about that loss: “Sure, you sit back and thinks sometimes – what happened? But then you remember that’s a great team. We just simply didn’t play well enough. It’s embarrassing when you lose and you’re representing the ACC in a big-time game like that.”

Coale and the Hokies, though not in the ACC’s champion bowl, get another shot in New Orleans on Tuesday to prove skeptics wrong this season and uphold the conference reputation.

Michigan’s defensive prowess isn’t encouraging for that cause though – 6th in passing defense and 35th in rushing defense against some solid competition. If the Hokies can channel what they got offensively and defensively against Virginia (38-0 win), they win, pure and simple, but I need to see the Hokies do it on this stage before I pick it.

Pick: Michigan 27-21

Orange: Jan. 4 – Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3), 8:30 ET

There will be points.

Both the ACC and Big East champs feature newly-installed spread-‘em-out and pick-‘em-apart offenses, but from different branches of the scheme.

Clemson’s attack is run-centered, inspired by Gus Malzahn, but with Chad Morris’ spin on it.

West Virginia’s is all about the passing game, inspired by Mike Leach/Hal Mumme under head coach Dana Holgorsen – quarterback Geno Smith averaging 40.25 attempts for 331.5 yards per game with 25 touchdowns to 7 interceptions this season.

Still developing the o-line and armed with weapons like freshman receiver Sammy Watkins, the Tigers chucked it around the field quite a bit this season too – breaking single-season school records for passing yards (284.77), total offense (440.62) and points (33.62) per game.

West Virginia punched its ticket to Miami by way of a three-way tie in the Big East – ranking highest in the BCS of the three (Cincinnati and Louisville the others).

Clemson started 8-0, but stumbled into the ACC Championship Game with three losses in four games. But their odd dominance over Virginia Tech continued in the ACC Championship Game after a 23-3 win in Blacksburg earlier this season – forcing an early turnover and rolling downhill all game to a 38-10 blowout victory.

The Mountaineers will show a different look defensively than Clemson has seen this season with a 3-3-5 formation (27th nationally in total defense). Tigers struggled down the stretch with teams dropping more into coverage and forcing quarterback Tajh Boyd to pick them apart (in part, due to his o-line struggling with holding down the opposing d-line with injuries). WVU’s Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller could both give Clemson some struggles in the pass rush.

The Tigers have, on the whole, contained the passing game, but still were quite susceptible to the big play. West Virginia will test that – twin 1,000 yard receivers (Stedman Bailey, 1,197 yards/11 TDs and Tavon Austin, 1,063 yards/4 TDs), and an offense that hit nine different targets in a game five times this season.

What we saw with Clemson this season is if they can protect Boyd and limit turnovers – the points will come. They’re facing one of the more impressive offenses nationally, but best v. best, I give a slight edge to the Tigers.

I tend to think both will start a little slow – doing a bit too much, but once the game settles down, the offenses will find their footing and make this an entertaining game. Clemson just makes a couple more plays to pull it out.

Pick: Clemson 34-31

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