By BJ Bennett
SouthernPigskin.com

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Here is a look at each of the SEC teams ranked in summer pre-season polls and how their personnel and recent production meet the status quo.

Each of the last five national champions, all SEC teams, have excelled at four basic facets of the game: turnover margin, rushing offense, sacks and rushing defense. The statistics are close to overwhelming. Of those four categories, the last five title winners haven’t finished below fifth in the SEC in any of them the year they won it all.

Last season Auburn finished fifth in turnover margin but led the SEC in rushing offense, rushing defense and ranked second in sacks. Two years ago Alabama paced the league in turnover margin and rush defense and ranked third in rush offense and sacks. Florida topped the conference in turnover margin and running the year prior, ranking second in sacks and fourth in run defense. LSU’s 2007 team led the SEC in turnover margin and was second in the three remaining categories. Florida’s 2006 team was the league’s best in run defense, ranked third in sacks and rush offense and was fourth in turnover margin.

In using those numbers as empirical evidence, can we project the 2011 BCS National Championship Game winner? The aformentioned areas of emphasis have become obvious, necessary staples of winning teams. By averaging the number one team’s conference ranking in all four categories, a modern script for success can be created. Based purely on the numbers, here, in order, are the qualities of recent championship teams.

1. Running the football = 2
2. Stopping the Run = 2.2
3. Turnover Margin = 2.4
4. Sacks = 2.4*

*While the statistical data with sacks and turnover margin was equal, Auburn’s 2010 total was tied with Arkansas (35) but the Tigers played one more game. Also each of the other categories had at least two national champions finish first on at least two different instances. No winner led the league in sacks. Thus the tiebreaker is given to turnover margin.

Here is a look at each of the SEC teams ranked in summer pre-season polls and how their personnel and recent production meet the status quo:

Alabama – The Crimson Tide should be exceptional at both running the football and stopping their opponent from doing the same. Junior Trent Richardson takes over after averaging 6.25 yards per carry and the offensive line should be top-notch. The Crimson Tide led the SEC in yards per carry allowed and gave up the second-fewest rushing touchdowns of any defense in college football. The return of Courtney Upshaw means Alabama should at least be above average at rushing the passer. While the Tide led the SEC in turnover margin a year ago, replacing veteran Greg McElroy with a new starter at quarterback likely means more interceptions. The defense should be aggressive and opportunistic enough to, for the most part, offset that however.

Arkansas – For as good as Knile Davis was last season, the Razorbacks still ranked last in the division in rushing offense in 2010. Having him, the SEC’s leading returning rusher, as the go-to starter all season should boost that ranking. Rush defense was a major problem last season and may continue to be. Only Kentucky and Vanderbilt were worse, this team’s Achilles’ Heel. Arkansas had a positive turnover margin, but barely. This defense must become better at forcing mistakes on a regular basis. With end Jake Bequette back, the defense will again be one of the league’s best at rushing the passer.

Auburn – It’s hard to quantify the Tigers’ numbers from a year ago in relation to this fall as they had both the most dominant offensive and defensive player in the game. Both Cameron Newton and Nick Fairley have moved on. Those two individuals were largely responsible for Auburn being near the top in each of the four major statistical categories. This offense should continue to run the football well behind Michael Dyer and company. The other areas are considerable question marks to say the least.

Florida – Without Tim Tebow, the Gators became an average rushing team in the SEC. The offense also became much more turnover-prone, finishing last in the SEC with 27 turnovers lost. You can’t win football games that way. Florida did well at defending the run and has the athletes to do much better than they did rushing the passer, just 21 sacks, last season. They simply have to get more production out of their pass rush. This defense may have the most athletically gifted collection of young defensive linemen in the league.

Georgia – The Bulldogs dropped all of the way down to 10th in the SEC in rushing offense last fall. Since that point, starting tailback Washaun Ealey has left the team. A lot of pressure will be on incoming freshman Isaiah Crowell to have success. The rush defense, in year one of the 3-4, also ranked in the bottom half of the conference. That should improve. A pass rusher must be found, however. UGA was 9th in the league in sacks and will now be without the SEC East’s leader in Justin Houston. Georgia did a very good job of taking care of the football. A more experienced Aaron Murray and a more comfortable defense should only help that.

LSU – After a disastrous year running the football in 2009, the Tigers got back to getting it done on the ground this past fall. A new starter will have to continue that trend. The run defense actually dipped in the other direction, allowing over 137 yards per game. If the Tigers could have held onto the football, they might have led the SEC in turnover margin. The defense was one of the best in the nation with 32 turnovers forced. Can they maintain that without Thorpe Award winner Patrick Peterson? LSU was able to get after the passer on a regular basis.

Mississippi State – One thing the Bulldogs do very well is run the football. They trailed only Auburn in 2010. With quarterback Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard both back, they may be the team to beat in that category. A strong rush defense from a year ago must rebuild the core of the front seven. The pass rush lacks a star. The development of young defensive linemen and linebackers will be crucial. State did a nice job with turnovers last season but needs to cut down on the interceptions some.

South Carolina – Marcus Lattimore is an All-American but the ground game has to become more consistent for the Gamecocks. What will largely determine the fate of this team is how often they turn the football over on offense. Only Florida had more miscues last season. Assuming Stephen Garcia returns, he has to limit mistakes. Defensively, USC should excel at both run defense and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Carolina ranked in the top three in both categories last year and should again be very good.

Analysis – The overall numbers suggest Alabama may be the most well-rounded of all of the candidates but they have the least experienced of all of the returning quarterbacks, save Auburn. The top two categories the last five seasons have been running the football and stopping the run; the Crimson Tide will be amongst the nation’s best at both. LSU has the basic framework; can it be maintained? Can their core strength overcome a recently inefficient passing game? Arkansas is intriguing, but it’s hard (based on the data) to project a team that finished last in their division in both rushing offense and rushing defense to win a title. On paper, South Carolina has a lot of potential. Teams often experience great change in turnovers accounted for from year-to-year; even a moderate reduction in turnovers could allow their other team strengths to lead them. Of the teams who have been mostly ranked outside of the top 15 this pre-season, Georgia may have the highest ceiling. The Bulldogs’ defensive shortcomings should be overcome by another year in their scheme and Crowell is poised to be a quick-fix for their biggest offensive weakness. Mississippi State’s potency with their ground game is equaled by questions with their run defense. Florida and, more so, Auburn have a lot of questions.