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OAYP: Week Two ACC Roundup

By Jim Johnson
SouthernPigskin.com
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OAYP ranks the Top 5 ACC players at each position after week two, and gives its team of the week.

Week two is in the books, and OAYP has been fully updated to reflect the new data.

These conference roundups will be released each week detailing the most highly rated players in the league, the top performers of that week, and the ever-changing overall team strength, offensive, and defensive rankings.

The team rankings will not be included in this week’s review, as eight FBS teams have still yet to play another FBS team. Stats compiled against FCS opponents, for neither teams nor individuals, are factored into the formula. So, given the marginal nature of the metric, everything is contingent upon everything else. As such, until all 130 have played one of the other 129 FBS teams, no one has scores.

Well, no team does. The players, however, do. Below you’ll find OAYP’s top five players in the league at every position group. That said, only players that met the full, or at least the secondary qualifying minimums last year are included. That’s to prevent inordinate swings in the rankings. Even if someone performed extremely well in week one, a full season’s worth of 2018 data is probably more telling than that single game. For those that did not meet the minimum thresholds, you can expect to start seeing them around week six, once the numbers have had an opportunity to stabilize and find somewhat of an equilibrium. I also decided not to include full or secondary qualifiers that have yet to play an FBS game, but you should see all of them a week from now.

Obviously, the new 2019 data does play a role, but a smaller one, for the time being, and will continue to comprise more of each given score as the season goes on, until 2018 can justifiably be factored out.

I also have to admit that I’ve somewhat altered the formula for individuals. After reviewing the data, it appeared that the defensive players’ numbers were a little bit skewed towards value as opposed to efficient production, while the opposite was true for offensive players. Last week, after the week one roundup was posted, I went back and made some alterations to the offensive formula and was really pleased with the results. So, the week one data now reflects the updates, and that will likely be what I stick with going forward.

The other side of the ball has been trickier. I did go back and update the week one data to match the changes made for week two, but it’s still not as evenly balanced between value and production as it should be. That said, I think I’ve figured it out. Unfortunately, the week one and two data will not reflect the changes, but hopefully my tinkering will yield better results in week three, and that this will be the standard for the remainder of the season.

OAYP is still in year one, and I’m treating this as a sort of beta test. While I’ve been really impressed with the metric so far, there’s still room for improvement. As I continue to experiment, the data might not be perfectly equitable on a week-to-week basis, but I think that will be worth it in the long run. Even in the short term, it should still do a good job of evaluating both teams and players -- just not as good as I hope it will once the changes are in full effect.

Also of note, these scores are not only relative to each conference, but Southern Pigskin’s entire coverage area -- the ACC, SEC, and Sun Belt. With that large a player pool, any particularly strong or weak position groups in a given league should no longer affect the marginal scores.

And remember, tiers are more useful than straight up rankings. The rule of thumb I’ve been using is: <-1.0 is a red flag, -1.0 to -0.01 is below average, 0.0 is the mean, 0.1 to 0.49 is above average, 0.5 to 1.0 is very good, 1.0 to 1.99 is a star, and 2.0+ is a bonafide superstar, which I suppose would make the handful of 3.0+ guys aliens or something.

These tiers may need a little altering in the future, as I also normalized the scoring between positions, as to avoid inequitability, but we’ll see.

POSITION RANKINGS

QB

  1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 0.96
  2. Jamie Newman, Wake Forest 0.7
  3. Ryan Willis, Virginia Tech 0.21
  4. Anthony Brown, Boston College 0.12
  5. Bryce Perkins, Virginia 0.02

RB

  1. Travis Etienne, Clemson 3.1
  2. Lyn-J Dixon, Clemson 1.86
  3. Jordan Mason, Georgia Tech 0.5
  4. Deejay Dallas, Miami 0.4
  5. Cam Akers, Florida State 0.36

WR

  1. Tamorrion Terry, Florida State 3.28
  2. Justyn Ross, Clemson 2.7
  3. Tee Higgins, Clemson 1.83
  4. Tre Turner, Virginia Tech 1.82
  5. Scotty Washington, Wake Forest 1.15

TE

  1. Jack Freudenthal, Wake Forest 1.52
  2. Carl Tucker, North Carolina 0.94
  3. Will Gragg, Pitt 0.75
  4. Tyler Davis, Georgia Tech 0.52
  5. Jake Burt, Boston College 0.07

OT

  1. Tremayne Anchrum, Clemson 2.29
  2. Justin Herron, Wake Forest 0.12
  3. Charlie Heck, North Carolina -0.12
  4. Zach Quinney, Georgia Tech -0.44
  5. Dillon Reinkensmeyer, Virginia -0.55

OG

  1. John Simpson, Clemson 0.32
  2. Ryan Nelson, Virginia 0.07
  3. Airon Servais, Syracuse -0.43
  4. Evan Adams, Syracuse -0.46
  5. Rakavius Chambers, Duke -0.69

C

  1. Sean Pollard, Clemson 1.7
  2. Jimmy Morrissey, Pitt -0.35
  3. Kenny Cooper, Georgia Tech -0.43
  4. Jack Wohlabaugh, Duke -0.54
  5. Nick Polino, North Carolina -0.82

EDGE

  1. Jonathan Garvin, Miami 2.54
  2. Xavier Thomas, Clemson 2.0
  3. Alton Robinson, Syracuse 1.99
  4. Trevon Hill, Miami 1.98
  5. Carlos Basham, Wake Forest 1.33

DL

  1. Tanner Karafa, Boston College 1.63
  2. Marvin Wilson, Florida State 1.25
  3. Larrell Murchison, NC State 1.18
  4. Nyles Pinckney, Clemson 1.12
  5. Derrick Tangelo, Duke 0.76

LB

  1. Isaiah Simmons, Clemson 3.56
  2. Shaq Quarterman, Miami 2.65
  3. Jordan Mack, Virginia 2.04
  4. Michael Pinckney, Miami 1.77
  5. Dontavius Jackson, Florida State 1.47

CB

  1. Bryce Hall, Virginia 3.74
  2. Dane Jackson, Pitt 1.87
  3. AJ Terrell, Clemson 1.73
  4. Essang Bassey, Wake Forest 1.57
  5. Trajan Bandy, Miami 1.56

S

  1. Andre Cisco, Syracuse 2.41
  2. Joey Blount, Virginia 1.92
  3. K'Von Wallace, Clemson 1.07
  4. Brenton Nelson, Virginia 1.0
  5. Tanner Muse, Clemson 0.88

OAYP TEAM OF THE WEEK

The teams of the week do include non-qualifiers from 2018. These are simply the highest single game scores of week two, at each position.

QB -- Jamie Newman, Wake Forest
RB -- Kenneth Walker, Wake Forest
RB -- Cam Akers, Florida State
WR -- Scotty Washington, Wake Forest
WR -- Trishton Jackson, Syracuse
WR -- Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
TE -- Will Gragg, Pitt
OT -- Justin Herron, Wake Forest
OT -- Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
OG -- Bryce Hargrove, Pitt
OG -- John Simpson, Clemson
C -- Zach Tom, Wake Forest

EDGE -- Carlos Basham, Wake Forest
EDGE -- Patrick Jones, Pitt
DL -- Jalen Twyman, Pitt
DL -- Brentavious Glanton, Georgia Tech
LB -- Charlie Thomas, Georgia Tech
LB -- Chad Smith, Clemson
LB -- Michael Pinckney, Miami
CB -- Chamarri Conner, Virginia Tech
CB -- AJ Terrell, Clemson
S -- Tanner Muse, Clemson
S -- Tariq Carpenter, Georgia Tech
DB -- Divine Deablo, Virginia Tech

Jim Johnson - Editor of Southern Pigskin, Producer of "Three & Out", and host of "Explosive Recruiting" on the Southern Pigskin Radio Network. E-mail: jim@espncoastal.com Twitter: @JimJohnsonSP