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Week Five Bowl Projections

By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com
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With the first month of the season in the books, we are starting to get a better sense of which teams are serious bowl contenders.

It’s way too early to make anything other than educated guesses for the bowl selection process, but let’s do it anyhow. With the first month of the season in the books, let’s project the holiday landing spots for SEC and ACC teams.

 

BCS Championship Game – Alabama vs. Oregon

The roads to Miami for the country’s top two teams appear fairly cushy, outside of Nov. 3 trips to LSU and USC respectively. Even with a loss, the Crimson Tide could still make their way back to the National Title Game. Oregon has to win them all, but appears to be far and away the class of the Pac-12 after one month.

 

Fiesta – Texas vs. Clemson

The Longhorns get the nod as the Big 12 champion, but as many of four teams could end up here. USC or a Big Ten team make sense as an at-large selection, but with Oregon in the BCS Championship Game, that likely means three losses for the Trojans. It’s not unprecedented, but the safer pick is a Clemson team who could run the table and finish 11-1.

 

Sugar – Georgia vs. Notre Dame

It’s likely a battle between the SEC East champion and LSU for this spot, provided neither can get past Alabama. An 11-2 Georgia team makes sense. While Notre Dame could be an option for the Rose Bowl if the Big Ten champion is not Purdue, Michigan or Michigan State, the call here is for a rematch of the 1981 Sugar Bowl in which Georgia claimed its most recent national title.

 

Orange – Florida State vs. Cincinnati

It will be another Orange Bowl lacking sizzle, as they are more or less locked in to the Big East champion. Florida State remains squarely in the national title hunt, but they’ll fall just short and have to settle for an Orange Bowl trip against a pesky, well-coached Cincinnati team, which will ride a light schedule all the way to Miami.

 

Capital One – LSU vs. Nebraska

The Tigers may be disappointed to end up in Orlando for the second time in four years, but with the SEC only being allowed two teams in the BCS, someone will get the short end of the stick. Nebraska might be the best team in the Big Ten, but a tricky schedule that includes road trips to Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern and Ohio State will cost them the Legends Division title.

 

Cotton – South Carolina vs. Oklahoma

Steve Spurrier’s offense and Bob Stoops’ defense combined to help Florida win its first national title in 1996, and the old friends could meet for the first time as head coaches in Dallas. Oklahoma dug themselves a hole in the Big 12 title race by losing at home to Kansas State, but the Cotton Bowl is always an adequate consolation prize.

 

Outback – Florida vs. Michigan State

The team which finishes third in the highly competitive SEC East race likely ends up in Tampa. As all three head-to-head matchups occur in October, we should have some clarity here by the end of the month. Michigan State is a disappointing 3-2, but should right its ship and get to eight or nine wins, good enough for a second straight trip to the Outback Bowl.

 

Chick-fil-A – Mississippi State vs. Virginia Tech

It’s been awhile since the Bulldogs have been to Atlanta, 13 years in fact, and they seem like the logical choice here should they finish in the eight or nine-win range. Virginia Tech should land here if the league can earn two BCS bids. Never count out Frank Beamer’s team making a run to the league title, but playing in the Georgia Dome will help prepare them for their 2013 opener there against Alabama.

 

Champs Sports – Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

Call this the Teddy Bridgewater Bowl, as the Miami native spurned his hometown Hurricanes after Randy Shannon was fired to sign with the Cardinals. Charlie Strong has had many battles with Miami on the recruiting trail from his days at Florida, and has continued to have a presence in the Sunshine State since coming to Louisville.

 

Sun – N.C. State vs. Oregon State

N.C. State had the potential to start 5-0, but another disappointing start for a Tom O’Brien team has left the Wolfpack to realign their goals for the seasons. Barring an upset of Florida State on Saturday night in Raleigh, El Paso appears to be the best case scenario. Oregon State will have its say in the Pac-12 race, but will have to settle for a third trip to the desert in seven years.

 

Gator – Tennessee vs. Iowa

Jacksonville seems like the most logical landing spot for the Volunteers, whether or not Derek Dooley survives the season. They could sneak into the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but a January bowl would make for a nice end to the season. Iowa has some work to do to get here, but with its rabid fanbase, the Hawkeyes are always attractive to bowl executives.

 

Belk – Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers

The Yellow Jackets are in a tailspin at 2-3 after an embarrassing home loss to Middle Tennessee, but with a workable schedule in the second half of the season, should be able to at least get to six wins. Rutgers appears to be in a three-way fight with Louisville and Cincinnati for the Big East crown.

 

Music City – Texas A&M vs. Duke

The Aggies got their first SEC win on Saturday with a 58-10 rout of Arkansas, but are a week away from beginning a brutal stretch that has them facing four unbeaten teams in five weeks. 7-5 sounds about right, which should land them in Nashville. Duke is 4-1, and faces a massive home date with struggling Virginia. Win that one, and this could be the year to end the 17-year bowl drought.

 

BBVA – Auburn vs. USF

The Bulls first burst onto the national radar with a win over Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2007, and could get another chance to take on the Tigers in their own backyard. At 2-3, they’ll need to finish with a winning record in conference play, but should be able to squeeze out six wins. Auburn may not be happy to end up in Birmingham, but their fans should still pack Legion Field.

 

Liberty – Missouri vs. Tulsa

The Conference USA race is currently a mess, with no clear-cut favorite having emerged after non-conference play and a handful of league games. Give the edge to the Golden Hurricane, who should emerge from a very weak West Division. A Tigers team with 6-7 wins likely ends up in Memphis.
 

Matt Smith – Matt is a 2007 graduate of Notre Dame and has spent most of his life pondering why most people in the Mid-Atlantic actually think there are more important things than college football. He has blogged for College Football News, covering both national news as well as Notre Dame and the service academies. He credits Steve Spurrier and Danny Wuerffel for his love of college football and tailgating at Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn for his love of sundresses. Matt covers the ACC as well as the national scene.

SouthernPigskin.com covers the SEC, ACC and SoCon with a purely southern perspective on the sport that defines us. Check us out! Part of USA Today Sports Media Group.


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