By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com

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Even with the loss of Dak Prescott, don’t expect too much of a decline from Mississippi State this fall.

Head Coach: Dan Mullen 3 eighth year at Mississippi State and overall (55-35 overall, 26-30 SEC)

Offensive Coordinator: Billy Gonzales and John Hevesy (third season)

Defensive Coordinator: Peter Sirmon (first season)

2015 Record: 9-4 (4-4 SEC); defeated N.C. State in Belk Bowl

Returning Starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)

2016 Schedule

Sept. 3 3 SOUTH ALABAMA (Noon ET, SEC Network)
Sept. 10 3 SOUTH CAROLINA (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Sept. 17 3 at LSU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Sept. 24 3 at Massachusetts (3:30 p.m. ET)

Oct. 8 3 AUBURN
Oct. 14 3 at BYU (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Oct. 22 3 at Kentucky
Oct. 29 3 SAMFORD

Nov. 5 3 TEXAS A&M
Nov. 12 3 at Alabama
Nov. 19 3 ARKANSAS
Nov. 26 3 at Ole Miss

What We Know

– The defense may have another new coordinator, but it wont look much different. Despite a third coordinator in as many years in former USC linebackers coach Peter Sirmon, Mullen wont allow significant tweaks to the core principles of the Mississippi State defense. Mullen wants his defenses to have 11 players running to the football to stop the run. Big plays will bite them from time to time, but bend-but-dont-break is not a philosophy to which Mullen subscribes.

– Fred Ross is a stud. DeRunnya Wilson received most of the hype among Bulldogs wideouts heading into last season, but Ross had 28 more receptions and nearly 100 more yards than Wilson. Only Laquon Treadwell, Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Ross had 1,000 yards last season among SEC receivers. Thats pretty good company, but Ross remains the most unheralded of the bunch. Whoever wins the quarterback battle (more on that shortly) will be blessed with an all-conference receiver without the all-conference notoriety.

– The running game will be fine without Dak Prescott. The most decorated player in program history has bid Starkville farewell, but the Bulldogs will be just fine even without their quarterback and leading rusher 3 on the ground, at least. Shifty Brandon Holloway and burly Ashton Shumpert combined for 151 carries last season and will now shoulder even more of the load with the 160 carries from Prescott unlikely to be duplicated by his successor.

What We Dont Know

– Who replaces Prescott? The only known commodity is junior Damian Williams, who backed up Prescott in 2014 and redshirted in 2015 after starting the Egg Bowl in 2013, which was Prescotts coming-out party. After Elijah Staleys decision to transfer, the two remaining competitors are sophomore Nick Fitzgerald and redshirt freshman Nick Tiano. The good news is that the early part of the schedule isnt too daunting, with the toughest stretch not coming until November.

– How will two hyped recruits who redshirted last year perform? Junior college transfer Martinas Rankin was expected to compete for a starting offensive tackle role last season, but he wasnt prepared for the SEC and preserved a year of eligibility. He won the all-important left tackle role in the spring on a line that returns three starters from last season. At linebacker, redshirt freshman Leo Lewis, who spurned rival Ole Miss for the Bulldogs on National Signing Day, takes over for multi-year starter Beniquez Brown. The former Top 50 recruit and veteran Richie Brown should give Mississippi State a formidable linebacking corps.

– Is there a complement to Ross? Ross and Wilson were a dangerous duo for the past two seasons, but finding a viable No. 2 receiver could be a challenge. Second-year wideouts Malik Dear and Donald Gray had 22 and 21 receptions respectively last year, but both are shorter than six feet. While the Bulldogs only signed one true receiver in the 2016 class, they did bring in three tight ends. Can early enrollee Dontea Jones become a vertical threat? Mississippi State needs someone to prevent defenses from going all in on shutting down Ross.

X-Factor

Dear and Gray 3 Mullen has done enough over his time at Utah, Florida and Mississippi State to show that he can develop a competent quarterback. The biggest concern is finding targets for the new quarterback outside of Ross. Gray is the bigger home-run threat of the two, but Dear can be a solid possession receiver. One of these two needs to become a 50-catch, 700-yard performer for this offense to function at a high level.

Ranking The Units

1. Linebackers

2. Running Backs

3. Defensive Line

4. Offensive Line

5. Wide Receivers

6. Defensive Backs

7. Quarterbacks

Season Prediction

As usual, the Bulldogs will exceed preseason expectations, which again call for a last-place finish (the Bulldogs have not finished last in the SEC West since 2009). The schedule is quirky, with a road game at Massachusetts and a long trip to BYU on a short week, but getting most of the toss-up games in Starkville bodes well for a seventh straight bowl appearance. Forget contending for the division title, but even without Prescott, there wont be much of a dip. Mullen is simply that good of a coach.

Overall Record: 7-5

SEC Record: 3-5

Final CFP Ranking: NR

Bowl: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma State