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Week Seven SEC Primer

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By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com
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Matt Smith previews week seven in the SEC.

Week 7 delivers conference games for all 14 teams for the first time and only time this season. With the two worst teams in the league playing each other, that gives us a half-dozen pretty intriguing matchups this weekend.

As strange as it sounds, perhaps the least intriguing game is the one that should determine the SEC East champion. We have a bounceback game for Alabama, a trap game for Texas A&M, a revenge game for Tennessee, and a nail-in-the-coffin game for LSU.

It will be hard to top last Saturdays wild day, but this week has potential to get pretty crazy down south. Lets dive into Week 7 in the SEC.

This is a Big Week for:
Coach: Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
You learn a lot about a football team by how they respond to a big win. Texas A&M certainly got a big win last week in shocking No. 1 Alabama, but now the Aggies have to hit the road for their first true road game of the season in a sleepy 11 a.m. game at Missouri. Has the offense turned the corner? Or is regression on the table in Columbia, even with the Tigers run defense being laughably bad? Texas A&M shouldnt lose this game, but it shouldnt have lost to Mississippi State at home, and it did.

Player: John Metchie, WR, Alabama
Metchie still leads Alabama with 34 catches, but he found the end zone just once in the last five games, and hes averaging just 11 yards per completion this season. Its time for Metchie to make more splash plays if this Crimson Tide offense hopes to put all the pieces together after a choppy first six games. Mississippi State has a top-10 run defense, meaning the passing game will need to be on point for Alabama on Saturday night in Starkville. That starts with Metchie being more explosive.

Unit: Arkansas Linebackers
Defending Matt Corrals arm is a challenge, but his ability with his legs might have been the difference last week in Arkansas near-miss at Ole Miss. Arkansas will see another quarterback with a dangerous lower body this week in Auburns Bo Nix. Corral welcomes more contact than Nix, but Nix is more slippery. Auburns passing game has been at its best when Nix is ad-libbing, so getting him to the ground when there in an opportunity to do so will be crucial for the Razorbacks.

Trivia Time
1. Who was the only SEC head coach to defeat both Peyton Manning and Eli Manning in college?
2. What Missouri running back scored the game-winning touchdown to defeat Texas A&M and clinch the SEC East title in the Aggies last visit to Columbia in 2013?
3. The second, third and fourth longest active winning streaks over an SEC division opponent are on the line this week. What is the longest active winning streak over an SEC division opponent?

Game Predictions
Auburn (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at (17) Arkansas (4-2, 1-2 SEC), Noon ET (CBS)
Announcers: Noah Eagle, Aaron Murray and Rick Neuheisel
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Auburn 30, Arkansas 28
Current Streak: Auburn – 5
Current Streak in Fayetteville: Auburn 3 2
Line: Arkansas -3.5
Over/Under: 53
Auburn has dominated this rivalry in recent years, but Arkansas was robbed of a road win in last seasons meeting after an officiating blunder in the final seconds. The Razorbacks will finally play their first SEC home game of the season, and despite the early kickoff, the Arkansas crowd should be juiced for the first game in Fayetteville in four weeks. Auburns defense is still banged up, and the Hogs offense comes in flying high after scoring 51 points a week ago in the best game of K.J. Jeffersons career. Offensively, Auburn will hope to use Bo Nixs legs much as Ole Miss did with Matt Corral last week, but the Tigers havent shown the passing game consistency to concern Arkansas if it emphasizes containing Nix as a scrambler. Unless Jefferson is sloppy with the football, Ill again ride with the Razorbacks coaching staff to get them back on track.
Prediction: Arkansas 35, Auburn 24 (Arkansas/over)

(20) Florida (4-2, 2-2 SEC) at LSU (3-3, 1-2 SEC), Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge
Last Meeting: 2020 3 LSU 37, Florida 34
Current Streak: LSU – 2
Current Streak in Baton Rouge: LSU – 1
Line: Florida -10
Over/Under: 59
One of the chippiest rivalries in the SEC is full of storylines this week, as LSU is likely one loss away from pulling the plug on Ed Orgeron. The Tigers may (or may not) rally around their embattled head coach, while the Gators have the added motivation of seeking revenge for a 3-5 Tigers team ruining Floridas national title hopes late last season. The Gators havent played a complete game yet this season, but both sides of the ball have shown periods of dominance against quality opponents. LSU found a running game for the first time in last weeks loss to Kentucky, but now will be without star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte for the rest of the season in addition to its top two cornerbacks. I expect a spirited effort from the Tigers, but it wont be enough, as Florida will hang on late to get its revenge and likely close the book on the Orgeron era in Baton Rouge.
Prediction: Florida 30, LSU 27 (LSU/under)

(21) Texas A&M (4-2, 1-2 SEC) at Missouri (3-3, 0-2 SEC), Noon ET (SECN)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb
Last Meeting: 2014 3 Missouri 34, Texas A&M 27
Current Streak: Missouri – 2
Current Streak in Columbia: Missouri – 3
Line: Texas A&M -9
Over/Under: 60.5
After meeting every year from 2010 through 2014, the Aggies and Tigers will battle for the first time in seven years on Saturday in Columbia. The Tigers have yet to beat a team with a pulse, but Texas A&M could be ripe for the picking coming down from the high of the Alabama win. After its best game of the season, the Aggies offensive line should be able to stack another good performance against the SECs worst run defense, which is allowing 288 yards per game. Missouris offense has been pretty good when its inept defense doesnt put it way behind schedule, and I expect quarterback Connor Bazelak and running back Tyler Badie to have some success. Missouri will play well, but the Tigers will be chasing all game and will fall just short of a statement win.
Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Missouri 31 (Missouri/over)

(11) Kentucky (6-0, 4-0 SEC) at (1) Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC) 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Georgia 14, Kentucky 3
Current Streak: Georgia – 11
Current Streak in Athens: Georgia 3 5
Line: Georgia -23.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Georgia has played teams with records of 4-0, 4-1 and 6-0 over the past three weeks, and for the third straight time, the Bulldogs opponent doesnt seem to have much of a chance. Thats Georgia football right now, which looks unbeatable through November. The Bulldogs havent been threatened by the Wildcats since 2016, allowing just 33 total points in the past four meetings. That makes sense on paper, as Kentucky is a bit of a poor mans Georgia, which doesnt seem like the ideal way to try to take down a titan. Someone will make some hay against this defense, but my money is much more on it being Florida or Tennessee than Kentucky. The Bulldogs have a formula for victory, and Saturday shouldnt look much different than the first six games.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Kentucky 6 (Georgia/under)

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-2 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 0-3 SEC), 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister
Last Meeting: 2020 3 South Carolina 41, Vanderbilt 7
Current Streak: South Carolina – 12
Current Streak in Columbia: South Carolina – 6
Line: South Carolina -18.5
Over/Under: 51
The battle for the SEC basement takes place in Columbia, as Vanderbilt looks for its first win over the Gamecocks since 2008. The Commodores are at rock bottom, having scored in just one of their previous four SEC games, while the Gamecocks have lost nine straight SEC games, seven of those by three scores or more. South Carolina running back Kevin Harris is the best player on the field, and this should be a comfortable Gamecocks win. However, the offense still cant do much of anything, and the Vanderbilt defense was actually decent a week ago against Florida. I hate taking the Commodores, but this line feels a tad too high for what South Carolina is offensively.
Prediction: South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 14 (Vanderbilt/under)

(5) Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (3-2, 1-1 SEC), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Greg McElroy
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Alabama 41, Mississippi State 0
Current Streak: Alabama – 13
Current Streak in Starkville: Alabama – 6
Line: Alabama -17
Over/Under: 57.5
This game has some similarities to 2011, when Alabama went to Starkville a week after a loss on a walk-off field goal to LSU. The Crimson Tide have shown some flaws on both sides of the ball, notably in the red zone and in pass coverage. The Bulldogs, which throw an average of 57 passes per game, will certainly test a secondary that will have Malachi Moore back after his early ejection for targeting against Texas A&M. Mississippi State has a very good run defense, so Alabama may lean on its ground game in the red zone after being mostly unsuccessful throwing the football in crucial sequences last week. Ticked off Alabama is always terrifying, but the Tides troubles wont be fixed overnight. The Crimson Tide will make it 14 straight in this series, but their performance wont answer all of the lingering questions.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 20 (Mississippi State/under)

(13) Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Tennessee (4-2, 2-1 SEC), 7:30 p.m. ET (SECN)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Last Meeting: 2014 3 Ole Miss 34, Tennessee 3
Current Streak: Ole Miss – 1
Current Streak in Knoxville: Tennessee – 7
Line: Ole Miss -3
Over/Under: 79.5
The nightcap to your SEC Saturday is a doozy, as Lane Kiffin returns to Knoxville with a top-15 team to face a Vols squad that has lit up the scoreboard the past two weeks with 107 points. Tennessee has feasted on two of the three worst teams in the SEC, while Ole Miss has had to deal with two potential New Years Six teams. One team is battle-tested, but the other is fresher. Even with Matt Corral, the Rebels will run into trouble when they get beat in the trenches. I dont see this being a week where that can happen, although the Volunteers should be able to run the football successfully. Its difficult to see this game not turning into a shootout, and if so, I cant go against the best quarterback in the country.
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Tennessee 35 (Ole Miss/under)

Best Bets
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 18-12
Virginia -11 vs. Duke
Indiana +4.5 vs. Michigan State
Kansas State +6.5 vs. Iowa State
UCLA +2 at Washington
Boston College +3 vs. N.C. State

The Best Game Ive Ever Watched On October 16:
Oct. 16, 2010: No. 7 Auburn 65, No. 12 Arkansas 43
2010 in the SEC West quickly became a four-team round-robin of great games between Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU. All six games were a lot of fun for different reasons, but none had the offensive explosion of the battle between the 4-1 Razorbacks and 6-0 Tigers on a sunny mid-October Saturday in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Ryan Mallett started under center for the 4-1 Razorbacks, but his day ended early with an arm injury after opening the scoring with a 7-yard touchdown pass to Van Stumon. Auburn scored 24 of the next 31 points to take a 24-14 lead, but Tyler Wilson came off the bench to lead four Arkansas touchdown drives all capped with scoring passes, as Bobby Petrinos offense had Auburns leaky defense confused. After Wilson and Greg Childs connected for their second score of the day, Arkansas led 43-37 over the 6-0 Tigers.

The Razorbacks defense had to deal with Cam Newton, however, and the eventual Heisman Trophy winner would get the last laugh. Newton responded with a go-ahead touchdown pass to Emory Blake with 12 minutes remaining to put Auburn in front, 44-43. Arkansas reached midfield again, but a game-changing fumble was returned the other way by Zac Etheridge for a Tigers touchdown.

It took Auburn just one play to get the ball back after Josh Bynes intercepted Wilson, and two Newton power runs got the Tigers back into the end zone and put the game all but out of reach at 58-43. Bynes repeated his efforts on the previous Arkansas drive with another interception, and Michael Dyer finished the scoring with a 38-yard touchdown run.

The Hogs finished with 566 yards of offense, nearly a hundred more than the team that beat it by 22. The three second-half turnovers doomed Arkansas, as did the four total touchdowns from Newton. Auburn went on to finish 14-0 and win the national title, while Arkansas would not lose again until the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State, finishing 10-3.

Sundays Projected Top 10
1. Georgia (1)
2. Iowa (2)
3. Cincinnati (3)
4. Oklahoma (4)
5. Alabama (5)
6. Ohio State (6)
7. Michigan (7)
8. Penn State (8)
9. Oregon (9)
10. Ole Miss (13)
Dropped out: (10) Michigan State

Trivia Answers
1. Jackie Sherrill (Mississippi State)
2. Henry Josey
3. Alabama over Arkansas (14 games)

Matt Smith – Matt is a 2007 graduate of Notre Dame and has spent most of his life pondering why most people in the Mid-Atlantic actually think there are more important things than college football. He has blogged for College Football News, covering both national news as well as Notre Dame and the service academies. He credits Steve Spurrier and Danny Wuerffel for his love of college football and tailgating at Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn for his love of sundresses. Matt covers the ACC as well as the national scene.


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