SEC Week Ten Primer
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By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com
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Matt Smith previews week ten in the SEC.
SEC Week 10 Primer
We thought we might have a day with all 14 SEC teams in action for the first time in seven weeks. Alas, thats a no-go, as Arkansas is unable to play its game at Missouri. The postponement led to a rejiggering of the schedule with Vanderbilt now traveling to Columbia instead of hosting Tennessee, with the Vols joining the Razorbacks at home for Thanksgiving weekend.
That said, its still Thanksgiving weekend. The SEC East games look much different than in a normal year without the SEC-ACC rivalry games, but we still have the three annual SEC West battles of hate. The home teams are heavy favorites, but as they say, sometimes you have to throw out the records for rivalry games. Lets hope that holds true and we get some good games to accompany our leftovers.
Its all division games on Saturday for the first time this season. Let us feast on all six as the SEC hits the stretch run of this wild rollercoaster of a season.
Southern Storylines
Shooting for 70
The SEC is still hoping to play all 70 games, as evident by reworking the schedule to give Missouri a game this weekend after Arkansas was unable to play. With four games remaining, the Tigers could not be idle this weekend, so Tennessee, which only has three games to play, was given an unexpected Saturday off. Tennessee-Vanderbilt and Arkansas-Missouri are likely to now be played on Dec. 19, with the TBD Georgia-Missouri game fitting in on Dec. 12. I expect a slew of changes to be announced by the end of the weekend that should allow all 70 games plus the SEC Championship Game to be in the books when heads meet pillows on the night of Dec. 19.
Revenge Week
With the LSU game still to be played (we think), Alabama has yet to play either of its two revenge games this season. That changes on Saturday when Auburn comes to Tuscaloosa. The Tigers outlasted the Crimson Tide last year in a thrilling 48-45 shootout on The Plains. Alabama hasnt lost consecutive games to an opponent since Ole Miss defeated them in 2014 and 2015. The top-ranked Tide are heavy favorites over the 5-2 Tigers, but Auburn has nothing to lose and heads into the game confident riding a three-game winning streak and having won this game two of the past three years.
Egg Over Easy?
Alabama-Auburn has always been a clean rivalry, despite the mutual hatred. The same cant be said for the Ole Miss-Mississippi State rivalry, as it has been marred by pettiness, shenanigans, toxicity and violence. The temperature seems to have been dialed down a bit with the two new regimes who seem to be treating this week as just another SEC game. The Rebels are two-score home favorites over a Bulldogs team that has lost five of its past six games, but Mississippi State did go toe-to-toe with Georgia for 60 minutes last week despite barely having enough available players to play. With Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach, you never quite know what to expect.
Bad Blood
Texas A&M and LSU arent fans of each other. The seven-overtime game two years ago took this new rivalry to another level, as there was a skirmish after the game coupled with the Aggies defeating the Tigers for the first time since joining the SEC. LSU hammered Texas A&M last season, but this year its the Aggies who are big home favorites on Saturday night. SEC West hopes are all but gone, but playoff hopes are not, so Texas A&M should be dialed in after not playing since Nov. 7 due to contact tracing issues. Like Auburn, theres no pressure on LSU, whose offense showed some positive things in last weeks win at Arkansas.
Staying On Trask
Florida needs two more wins to lock up the SEC East title, but there are loftier goals for the Gators, both team and individual. Kyle Trask threw three more touchdowns and for nearly 400 yards last week against Vanderbilt and is now the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. While the SEC Championship Game may be the ultimate determinant, Trask has a chance on Saturday to put up big numbers against a Kentucky team that just allowed 63 points to Alabama last week. Trask will get star tight end Kyle Pitts back this week after Pitts missed the past two-and-a-half games due to an injury suffered against Georgia.
Trivia Time (answers below):
1. In what year did Alabama defeat Auburn in Tuscaloosa for the first time?
2. The last five Ole Miss and Mississippi State head coaches won their first Egg Bowl. Who are they?
3. What College Football Hall of Famer was the head coach at both LSU and Texas A&M?
Previews and Predictions
Kentucky at (6) Florida (-23.5), Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Mark Jones and Dusty Dvoracek
Despite winning just once in the last 33 meetings against the Gators, Kentucky has been a bit of a thorn in Floridas side, sandwiching two heartbreaking home losses in 2017 and 2019 around a stunning win in Gainesville in 2018 to snap a 31-game losing streak in the series. The Wildcats offense has been non-existent against teams .500 or better this season, managing just 16 total points in blowout losses to Alabama, Georgia and Missouri. Floridas defense leaves something to be desired, but Kentuckys capable ground attack may have a hard time flourishing, especially with budding star running back Chris Rodriguez likely sidelined for a second straight week. Alabama shredded the Wildcats defense, and theres little reason to think Kyle Trask and the Gators wont do the same. Prediction: Florida 49, Kentucky 21
Vanderbilt at Missouri (-15.5), Noon ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Mike Corey and Hutson Mason
Preparation may be a bit of a concern with this game not being scheduled until Monday afternoon. Missouris offense struggled last week at South Carolina, managing just 17 points against a defense that had allowed 700 yards and 59 points to Ole Miss and was playing without its top two cornerbacks. Vanderbilt continues to show some flashes on both sides of the ball, but there have been too many spans of ineptitude for the 0-7 Commodores to put themselves in a position to win a game. The Tigers arent going to run away from Vanderbilt on talent alone, but this does seem like a focused team that has remained locked in and is poised for a strong finish. Players on last years team should also recall the embarrassment of losing to Vanderbilt as a ranked team last season. Prediction: Missouri 31, Vanderbilt 10
(22) Auburn at (1) Alabama (-24.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Despite the explosion of the Alabama passing attack in recent seasons, the Crimson Tide might be best served turning back the clock this week for the 85th rendition of the Iron Bowl. Auburn has been run at early an often this season, and hasnt shown much resistance outside of shutting down LSU. Alabama running back Najee Harris may have his best game in Bryant-Denny Stadium in his final game there, going up against this porous Tigers front. Auburns secondary can make some plays. The best way to avoid those game-changing mistakes that cost Alabama last years Iron Bowl is to not let Auburn be in position to make those plays. Harris counterpart, Tank Bigsby, may be unable to go after suffering an injury last week against Tennessee. That would be a major loss for Auburn if hes limited or unavailable. Ill begrudgingly take the points here, but could easily see Alabama keeping its foot on the gas and running the score up in a rare revenge spot. Prediction: Alabama 45, Auburn 24
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-9.5), 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Lost in this SEC season has been the steady play of the Mississippi State defense. The Bulldogs are average or better in every area 3 run defense, pass defense, scoring defense and takeaways. Outside of Alabama, this Saturdays Egg Bowl will be their biggest test of the season. As weve seen all season, the matchups between top offenses and top defenses are being won by the offenses. That bodes well for the Rebel. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is still a sieve. I expect an aggressive game plan from the Rebels defense. If Mississippi State scores quickly, thats fine, as it will get Matt Corral and the Ole Miss offense back on the field. The Egg Bowl is always entertaining, and this one should be no different. Prediction: Ole Miss 48, Mississippi State 31
LSU at (5) Texas A&M (-14), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Dan Orlovsky
I have no clue what to think here. We havent seen Texas A&M for three weeks, when the Aggies popped South Carolina. LSU might have found a quarterback after T.J. Finleys sharp day at Arkansas last week, but the pass defense was shredded by Feleipe Franks and the Razorbacks. Kellen Mond and the Texas A&M offense has had to shuffle pieces all season, but they still put up a ton of points since its lone loss of the season at Alabama. Texas A&M should have more success on the ground than Arkansas did, while its defense should be able to put Finley under increased pressure compared to what he saw last week against the undermanned Hogs. LSU will hang around for a half, but Texas A&M wont slip up here as it continues its quest for a CFP berth. Prediction: Texas A&M 38, LSU 19
(9) Georgia (-21.5) at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb
Instead of facing a head coach who is a former Georgia defensive back, the Bulldogs will now face a head coach who is a former Georgia quarterback. Mike Bobo took over for Will Muschamp last week, falling to Missouri in his first game in charge of South Carolina. Bobo and Kirby Smart were teammates at Georgia in the mid- 890s, adding some mild intrigue to this game that doesnt have a ton of it organically. Despite a poor showing from its defense, Georgia found some offense last week in quarterback J.T. Daniels first start. That should carry over this week against a thin South Carolina defense. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have a quarterback competition, but it looks like freshman Luke Doty will be making his first career start on Saturday night after finishing last weeks loss to Missouri. Expect the Bulldogs defense to get back on track against a non-threatening South Carolina offense. Prediction: Georgia 34, South Carolina 14
Best Bets
Last Week: 2-2, -5 Musburgers
Season: 18-23-1, -11 Musburgers
Louisville -1 at Boston College 3 5 Musburgers
Oregon State +14 vs. Oregon 3 4 Musburgers
Ole Miss -9.5 vs. Mississippi State 3 3 Musburgers
Michigan -2 vs. Penn State 3 2 Musburgers
Ohio -25 vs. Bowling Green 3 1 Musburger
Trivia Answers
1. 2008
2. Houston Nutt, Hugh Freeze, Matt Luke (Ole Miss); Dan Mullen, Joe Moorhead (Mississippi State)
3. Dana X. Bible (LSU, 1916; Texas A&M 1917-1928)
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