By Jim Johnson
SouthernPigskin.com

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This matchup could look an awful lot like the football product that folks are used to seeing on Sunday — a couple of pro-style offenses, and two teams littered with future draft picks on either side of the ball.

The powers that be, in college football, have done a good job of making the sports opening weekend the premier series of sporting events in the United States, over that handful of days leading up to and including Labor Day.

That will continue to be the case in 2018, with a slate headlined by Auburn-Washington, in Atlanta, on Saturday, along with Ole Miss-Texas Tech (straight candy), FAU at Oklahoma (upset alert), Boise State at Troy (G5 powers),and Michigan-Notre Dame (take the under), as well as standalones Miami-LSU, in Arlington, on Sunday, and Virginia Tech at Florida State, on Monday.

That Jerry World matchup could look an awful lot like the football product that folks are used to seeing on Sundays, too — a couple of pro-style offenses, and two teams littered with future draft picks on either side of the ball. It also pits a couple of the games coolest, most fun, consistently talented programs against one another. One, on the rise, again, to national prominence (IS x98THE U BACK?), the other trying to halt a steady slide towards mediocrity.

Plus, for as lopsided as many analysts believe this contest could be, SBNation Writer Bill Connellys S&P+ has Miami and LSU as the projected 13th and 16th ranked teams, respectively. Miami could be favored in every game they play, while LSU fights to get to bowl eligibility, but thats because of their schedules. For one night in Texas, each of them undefeated, the future wont mean a thing.

Moreover, even if Miamis offense is marginally better than LSUs, should both potentially elite defenses be far and away superior to either opposing attack, how much does it really matter? Football isnt about whether one teams offensive line is better than the other teams offensive line, its about whether ones offensive line is better than the others defensive line, cornerbacks better than wide receivers, or vice versa. Its about matchups. And its about the Turnover Chain. Football is very much about the Turnover Chain. Actually, the Turnover Chain might be the only thing that matters.

Ten of the sixteen players that rocked that magical piece of jewelry in 2017 return to Manny Diazs defense, including three returning starters in the secondary, which was one of the the best in the country. A year ago, they ranked 31st in pass defense S&P+, allowing a 39th ranked 37.4% success rate (plays that gain at least 50% of the necessary yardage to move the chains on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down), and a 13th ranked 1.28 IsoPPP (an explosiveness measure derived from the equivalent point value of successful plays). Their defensive back havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles per play) of 7.1% also ranked 42nd in the country, while their 37.5% pass defensed to incompletion ratio (25th), indicates that they were making plays on the ball at a significantly higher clip than average.

Safety Jaquan Johnson, a versatile defender equally capable against the run or the pass, is the leader of the group and seemingly has no weaknesses in his game. While no one aspect stands out as singularly elite, he is solid across the board. He had the second lowest passer rating allowed on throws into his coverage among ACC safeties, as a junior. Hell be joined on the backend by converted cornerback Sheldrick Redwine. The only returning Cane that had more passes defensed than Redwine was Michael Jackson.

Jackson, the prototype at cornerback, allowed the lowest passer rating on his targets in the ACC, in 2017, during conference play, among returning players, to go along with a strong 43.2% catch rate. He should have been playing opposite the incredible Malek Young, but unfortunately Youngs extremely promising career was ended by neck injury. Though still a devastating loss, and a tragedy that goes beyond football, Trajan Bandy, as a freshman, flashed superstar potential, tying for first in the league with just four first downs allowed, never giving up more than 12 yards after catch in a single game, and posting an allowed passer rating of 43 on throws into his coverage, from the slot (2nd among returning ACC cornerbacks). The secondary promises to be great again, with quality returning depth behind the aforementioned, as well as a host of highly touted freshman (one of which is Al Blades Jr., of the Hurricane royal family bloodline).

The question is whether or not Miamis pass rush will be able to create as much pressure as it did. The group fed off the secondary last year, but the opposite was also true. It was a truly cohesive effort, a force of symbiosis. In 2017, they ranked 26th in the country in adjusted sack rate, with an 8% rate on standard downs (12th), and an 8.4% rate on passing downs (41st). However, Joe Jackson is the lone returning player from the front seven that had 4+ sacks, or even more than four QB hurries. An aggressive, gifted, experienced linebacking corps that returns all three starters will help, and senior edge rusher Demetrius Jackson could be poised for a breakout year, with 22 pressures and and 36 stops (tackles that constitute a win for the defense) in merely 650 career snaps, but there are still a lot of unknowns, especially in the interior.

Similar questions arise as it pertains to the first line of defense against the run. Back when Chad Thomas, Trent Harris, RJ McIntosh and Kendrick Norton were still x98Canes, Miami ranked 30th in rush defense S&P+, 27th in adjusted line yards allowed, with a 39.6% allowed success rate (40th), .83 IsoPPP allowed (26th), registered a tackle for loss, pass defensed or forced fumble 8.8% on 8.8% of snaps (4th), and garnered a stop at or behind the line of scrimmage 23.5% of the time (18th). The two Jacksons are the only returning defensive linemen that allowed a sub-30% success rate or had more than four stuffs, too, so theres not even a real clue as to whom else could emerge. Again, the linebackers, and Jaquan Johnson, with Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckneys 26 combined stuffs will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting, especially early on.

That doesnt bode well against an LSU rushing attack that has ranked no lower than 7th in S&P+ in the past three years, and was 6th, a year ago, with a 49% success rate (8th), gained at least five yards 44.6% of the time (7th), and was stopped for a loss or no gain just 15.2% of the time (13th). Granted, neither Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, nor Darrel Williams are in Baton Rouge any longer. Nevertheless, projected starter Nick Brossette, albeit on a limited (very [very] limited) sample size, gained at least five yards 52.6% of the time, which was notably higher than the latter two, with a 47.4% success rate and a 3.2% marginal efficiency (the difference between a players success rate and the expected success rate of a play, based on down, distance, and yard line, relative to the national average), both of which were at least comparable to his two predecessors.

Plus, LSUs offensive line deserves some of the credit for their rushing success. Two players with at least eight starts return from a group that ranked 4th in adjusted line yards (a metric that attempts to separate what a ball carrier does what the line gives him, inasmuch as thats possible), creating 3.33 line yards per carry on standard downs (15th) and 3.79 on passing downs (9th). While replacing the likes of Will Clapp, Toby Weathersby, and KJ Malone is hardly a fun task, there are plenty of well regarded prospects waiting in the wings to help mitigate any expected regression.

The run game should be fine. The passing game, on the other hand, is mystery at this point. Ed Orgeron named Steve Ensminger the new offensive coordinator and play caller, following the bizarre Matt Canada departure. The way Orgeron stuck his fingers in that wizards offense last year should be against the law, and Canada still managed to turn Danny Etling into a serviceable, if not good, quarterback, just as he had done with Nate Peterman, at Pitt. Now its the more amenable Ensmingers turn, after having not been a full time play caller since 1998. In fairness, during an eight game stretch in 2016, he improved the Tigers production by 1.3 yards per play and 11 points per game, compared to what they had done in the first four games of that season. Still, the whole situation has been disappointing, to put it nicelyxa6 or stupid, to put it accurately.

Theres probably no point in mentioning LSUs 2017 passing numbers, given the turnover and corresponding overhaul, but for the purposes of illustrating Canadas magical powers, LSU ranked 16th in pass offense S&P+, in large part due to their 1.69 IsoPPP (15th).

Yet, for as good as the run blocking was, the protection was abysmal, ranking 97th in adjusted sack rate allowed, with a 6.8% rate on standard downs (96th), a 12.6% rate on passing downs (121st), as well as 45 total hurries, 20 QB hits, and 30 sacks given up. Theres no real reason to expect that to improve, either, as the (maybe) three returners — Garrett Brumfield, Ed Ingram, and Saahdiq Charles — ranked third, fourth, and sixth in pass block efficiency on the team, among the six offensive linemen that started more than once.

Maybe Ohio State-transfer Joe Burrow can be the answer behind center that LSU hasnt had in years. He did have a solid 82.1% adjusted completion percentage for the Buckeyes, in 2016, but he just hasnt played many meaningful snaps in his career. Another transfer, Jonathan Giles from Texas Tech, is poised to be the top receiver for LSU, but who knows how much hell get the ball, especially as compared to his time under noted pilot Cliff Kingsbury. Blue-chipper Terrace Marshall should factor into the equation as well, but the point holds: LSU has had plenty of pass catching talent in recent memory, but no one to do the passing part. A checkered history of grad-transfer success, across the collegiate landscape, especially at the games most important position, hardly portends an exceedingly bright future for Burrow.

Tight end Foster Moreau, though, if Ensminger is as committed to balance as he purports to be, may have a big year, especially if the passing game tries to be more steady than electric. He ranked in the top 20 in marginal efficiency and 11th in marginal explosiveness among returning tight ends with 30+ targets. He does need to clean up some of his drops, and it would help if he made a few more of the tougher catches — he was 0/4 on targets when covered — but theres some promise there.

With just a handful of returning starters and a new OC, a slow start could be in the cards for an offense that ranked only ranked 51st in points per drive (factoring out clock kills and garbage time), 42nd in S&P+, and 96th in points per trip inside the 40-yard line, with a 46.1% success rate (17th), 1.17 IsoPPP (61st), and projected 2018 S&P+ ranking of 39th. Even if it gets its act together down the stretch, matching up with Miami in week one is too big an ask. For context, the Hurricanes ranked 26th in points per drive allowed, 22nd in S&P+, and 24th in points allowed per trip inside the 40, with a 38.5% allowed success rate (37th), 1.04 IsoPPP given up (13th), and a projected 2018 S&P+ ranking of 14th.

LSUs best bet is to throw that balance for the sake of balance nonsense to the wind, test Miamis inexperienced defensive line between the tackles, and hope that Brossette can maintain his previous efficiency while shouldering a greater carry burden. If not, assuming Joe Burrow isnt Aaron Rodgers, there could be a lot of punting and maybe even a few Turnover Chain(!) sightings. Should the latter scenario come to fruition, if LSU wants to survive, it will come down to what they can do on defense.

Hint: they can do a lot.

Even though the Tigers have at least one genuine superstar, be they fully shining or in the making, at every level of the defense, not dissimilar from their opposition, everything starts in the secondary. As a unit, the 2017 pass defense ranked 19th in the nation, with a 35.8% success rate (25th), and 1.41 IsoPPP allowed (53rd). No matter, the defensive backfield, specifically, outperformed the group as a whole with a 9.6% havoc rate and a 43.2% pass defensed to incompletion ratio, both of which were in the top five of all FBS programs.

Cornerback Greedy Williams is a truly special combination of size, speed, and length, granting him overwhelming advantages in press-man. Theres still some room to improve in off coverage, but its easy to forget that he was only a redshirt freshman, on account of how much better he was than almost everyone else. In that debut campaign, he allowed a remarkable 19.4 passer rating on throws into his coverage (2nd among returning FBS CBs), picked off or defensed 25% of said throws (3rd), and allowed a 39.1% catch rate (10th). This guy is like Patrick Peterson, if Patrick Peterson was 63. (Part of me wants to see him wearing #7, but I also know that it would probably give me heart palpitations, so Im good either way.) Outside of Williams, both starting safeties John Battle and Grant Delpit return, each after allowing a negative marginal explosiveness rating, with the former a likely contender for all-conference honors. The other cornerback spot is a big question mark, but LSU has earned the benefit of the doubt, as one of the premier producers of secondary talent in recent memory and beyond.

Again, similar to Miami, LSU did lose a fairly substantial bit of proven pass rushing talent up front, though. The 2017 defense ranked 17th in adjusted sack rate, getting there on 8.2% of standard downs (9th) and 10.8% of passing downs (12th). Standout linebacker Devin White is the only guy coming back with more than two sacks, but Rashard Lawrence, who typically would be one of the best defensive linemen in the country, but is flying under the radar in a stacked class at the position, and highly touted edge rusher KLavon Chaisson combined for 17 hurries and six hits on opposing QBs, according to CFB Film Room.

Even so, White, uncharacteristic as it may be for an off ball linebacker, is probably the best pass rusher on the team. As denoted by Pro Football Focus, he ranks first among 2019 draft eligible linebackers in pass rush productivity, and his 30 total pressures in 2017 tied for first among all returning FBS linebackers.

The run defense also has a lot to live up to (not as much as the pass D, but still), fresh off a top 25 S&P+ ranking, with a 40.6% allowed success rate (52nd), .84 IsoPPP (35th), and a 5.9% linebacker havoc rate (20th).

Even with all of the departures, four linebackers return a sub-30% allowed success rate, three of which are projected starters alongside White, as do a pair of defensive lineman — projected starting nose tackle Ed Alexander and rotational 3-tech Glen Logan. Those two giants, plus Lawrence, as well as another Texas Tech transfer, Breiden Fehoko, and a now-eligible Tyler Shelvin should form an awfully formidable defensive line two-deep.

If that unit finds its rhythm early, Miamis run game could have its hands full. Then again, Mark Richt and OC Thomas Brown, a former ball carrier himself, know how to move the ball on the ground.

In 2017, even after losing Mark Walton early on, the Hurricanes ranked 22nd in rushing S&P+ and gained at least five yards 43.5% of the time (13th), with a 43.4% success rate (56th) and 1.11 IsoPPP (9th). The run blocking played a big role in that ability to maintain success in the face of adversity, with an adjusted line yard ranking of 27th, creating 3.05 line yards per standard down carry (44th), and 3.69 per carry on passing downs (27th). Three starters return from that group, led by 2017 All-ACC guard Navaughn Donaldson, with a combined 47 career starts between them.

In the backfield, Richt has an abundance of weapons at his disposal. Travis Homer, the primary rusher after Walton went down, finished 2017 in the top three of all returning ACC running backs in PFFs elusiveness rating, and his marginal explosiveness ranked in the national top ten of returning backs with at least 150 carries. Providing depth, all-purpose dynamo Deejay Dallas was the first Miami freshman to rush for multiple touchdowns and average at least 5.2 yards per carry since Duke Johnson in 2012. He also flashed more pass catching upside than Homer and promises to factor in to both the offense and return game in myriad ways. The addition of blue chip super freak Lorenzo Lingard, who was clocked running a 4.27 40-yard dash in team testing, just adds another layer to what was already one of the most dynamic run games in college football.

Dual-threat signal caller Malik Rosier adds even another element to the rushing attack. Among returning quarterbacks that carried the ball at least 60 times, he is in the top 15 in marginal explosiveness and the top ten in marginal efficiency. However, for all of that consistency with his legs, his passing was a different story.

From Connellys early look at Miami, as part of his incredible 130 team preview series: Rosier completed 66% of his passes for 13.9 yards per completion, with a 2.2% interception rate, and a 167 passer rating over the first three games of the season. In the next seven, he completed 53% for 14.4 yards per completion, with a 3% interception rate, and a 132.1 passer rating. Then, in the final three games, he completed 45% of his attempts for 12.5 yards per completion, with a 5.6% interception rate, and a 92 passer rating. The schedule could account for part of that, but it does not even close to explain his devolving into an absolute liability by late-November. He will almost certainly start game one, so it wont much factor into this matchup, but if he doesnt manufacture some modicum of stability, look out for redshirt freshman NKosi Perry to get some time.

Still, all things considered, Miami ranked 21st in passing S&P+, with a 39% success rate (82nd), and 1.6 IsoPPP (30th). Their top two pass catchers are both gone, but a healthy Ahmmon Richards and Lawrence Cager, a more developed Jeff Thomas, and Dallas contributions could more than cover for the losses.

Richards did not look himself last year, even when he played, just a season removed from joining Tyler Boyd, Sammy Watkins, and Artavis Scott as the only ACC freshmen, this millenia, to record at least four 100+ yard receiving games. Nevertheless, he did still manage to reel in 44.4% of his targets 20 or more yards downfield, good for first among returning ACC receivers. And, say this for Rosier, he can stretch a defense. Only ten returning FBS quarterbacks had more than his 936 deep ball passing yards. As good as LSUs secondary will be, he only has to uncork one of those bombs to change the entire face of a ball game.

Overall, LSUs defense should still be better than Miamis offense, but by a thinner margin than the opposite matchup. Miami averaged 2.06 points per drive (73rd) in 2017, while LSU allowed 1.75 (33rd). The x98Canes were 36th in offensive S&P+, 75th in success rate (40.9%), 11th in IsoPPP (1.38), 47th in drive finishing, averaging 4.63 points per trip inside the 40-yard line, and is projected as the 23rd ranked S&P+ offense in 2018. LSU was 18th in defensive S&P+, 33rd in success rate allowed (38.2%), 38th in IsoPPP (1.11), 43rd in drive finishing, allowing 4.19 points per trip inside the 40, and is projected as the 12th ranked defense by S&P+.

It will really come down to big plays. Miami creates an awful lot of them, but its by necessity. Forcing Malik Rosier to stay patient, and dink and dunk was a recipe for success, last year. Until proven otherwise, theres no reason to expect that it wont be again.

The special teams battle is probably a wash. Miami was really good on punt returns last year, and probably will be again, even after losing Braxton Berrios, between Deejay Dallas and Jeff Thomas. LSU is in a similar boat, but with kick returns. Other than that, neither team was especially good in any respect.

As it so often does, if both defenses are firing on all cylinders, this game could come down to turnovers and field position.

Both teams were in the national top 15 in turnover differential, a year ago. LSU was +10, Miami +13. However, whereas LSUs had ever-so-slightly negative turnover luck, based on the their expectancy, Miami was one of the x9cluckiestx9d teams in the country, as far as turnovers were concerned. The Chain must actually have secret powers. In fairness, Miami did put themselves in a position to beat the normal expectancies by wreaking havoc, creating pressure, forcing mistakes, and having elite defensive backs, but that sort of luck usually goes the other way at some point.

Average starting field position, too, is a close call if 2017 was any indication. Miami was 22nd and 35th, respectively in offensive and defensive average starting field position. LSU was 33rd and 8th.

For many, the expectation is that Miami will roll LSU, in front of the eyes of the nation, on September 2nd. The numbers tell a different story. Sure, Richt and company should probably be favored, and will almost certainly go onto have a much more successful year, regardless of the outcome of this game, but LSU will more than put up a fight.

Orgeron may or may not be mismanaging that program, but his players go to battle for him. With all their talent on defense, in a one game scenario, that can be enough. Football, above all else, is about the matchups within the matchup. As far as those go, theres almost nothing to separate these teams.

Both squads littered with future draft picks from top to bottom, Sunday night in Arlington, Labor Day weekend, will look a lot like Sunday night football does the rest of the year — just more fun and with better fans.