By Dave Holcomb
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb on what Miami must do do upset Alabama.

The Miami Hurricanes and Alabama Crimson Tide met on a semi-regular basis while Bear Bryant coached at Alabama, but the two historic programs have not squared off since the 1993 Sugar Bowl. In that matchup, the No. 2 Crimson Tide routed the No. 1 and previously undefeated Hurricanes, 34-13.

Most expect Alabama to dominate in a similar fashion when the Crimson Tide faces the Hurricanes on Sept. 4. Most betting spreads for the matchup sit between 18.5 to 19.5 points.

Alabamas recent success in Week 1 suggests it might not even be that close. The Crimson Tide is 9-0 and has beaten its opponents by an average of 23.8 points per game since 2012. And those wins arent coming against cupcakes — all nine of those victories have been against Power 5 competition, including several teams ranked in the preseason Top 10.

The Crimson Tide hasnt won by less than 10 points on opening weekend since 2006. They havent begun a season 0-1 in 20 years (losing 20-17 versus UCLA in 2001).

As imposing as Alabama appears, the secret to Miami upsetting the Crimson Tide isnt really a secret. Hurricanes quarterback DEriq King will have to play the best game of his life, and Miamis defense will have to capitalize on mistakes.

King played his best last season at NC State, throwing for 430 yards and 5 touchdowns on 31 of 41 passing. He also rushed for 105 yards while leading the Hurricanes to a 44-41 victory.

In the fourth quarter, King led Miami on three scoring drives to allow the Hurricanes to erase a 10-point deficit. He threw the eventual game-winning touchdown, a 54-yard completion to Mike Harley, with 2:43 remaining in regulation.

It will likely take an equally historic day from King for Miami to beat Alabama.

The Crimson Tide has lost just 10 times since the start of the 2013 season. In six of those losses, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for at least 250 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those performances came from some of the best signal callers in recent college football history — Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson.

Incredibly, three of the four games where Alabama lost in the last eight years and the opposing quarterback didnt reach 250 passing yards and 3 touchdowns were against Auburn. The Tigers are really the only program thats been able to beat the Crimson Tide without an elite performance in the passing game.

For LSU, it took Burrow going 31 of 39 for 393 yards with 3 touchdowns. Lawrence completed 20 of 32 passes for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 2018 national championship game. Watson went completely insane, posting 35 completions, 463 total yards and 4 total touchdowns to dethrone Alabama in the 2016 national championship.

Miami will require that kind of production to be competitive with Alabama on Sept. 4.

Defensively, the Hurricanes will need to force the Crimson Tide into mistakes. Alabama has seven giveaways in its last four defeats dating back to the 2017 season. In the 2018 national championship versus Clemson and 2019 regular season matchup against Auburn, Alabama allowed a pick-six.

Even if Miamis defense struggles to hold Alabama under 40 points, scoring on defense would make life a little easier for King.

Forcing mistakes will be key, but quite honestly, the Hurricanes will also have to hope Nick Sabans squad isnt quite at its best. In its last five losses, the Crimson Tide has averaged 8.8 penalties and 71.2 penalty yards per contest.

In a loss against Ole Miss during 2015, Alabama committed just four penalties but lost the turnover battle 5-0. Yet the Crimson Tide still made it close in the end, losing 43-37.

Miami has the talent to be competitive against Alabama. However, it will take all the stars — King having an historic day, defense scoring and/or forcing turnovers, Alabama making uncharacteristic mistakes — aligning for Miami to end Sabans dominance on opening weekend.