By BJ Bennett
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb offers a preview and prediction for Syracuse vs Louisville.

Six wins isnt usually something to brag about in college football. But it is for the Syracuse fanbase.

Thats because six-win seasons have been rare in upstate New York. The Orange have just two winning seasons in the last eight years. During that stretch, they have won at least six games only once — the fewest in the ACC.

That can change this weekend. Well, Syracuse will still be last in six-win seasons in the ACC since 2014, but the Orange can reach that plateau for the second time under coach Dino Babers with a win against Louisville. More importantly, a victory will essentially guarantee a bowl trip.

Standing in the way are the Cardinals, who have lost two straight and are fighting for their own chance at a six-win season. Despite the losing streak, Louisville is in position to make earning bowl eligibility difficult for the Orange.

Syracuse might need to use a little bit of a different formula than what it has been accustomed to this season to reach its sixth win Saturday.

The usual formula for the Orange this year has involved plenty of second-year freshman running back Sean Tucker. Hes near the top in every single rushing statistic in the ACC, and in some of the categories, hes in first by a substantial margin. Tucker has 1,267 rushing yards, averaging just a bit more than 140 yards on the ground per game.

Dukes Mataeo Durant is the only other ACC running back that even has 1,000 yards or is averaging 100 yards on the ground per game, and hes behind Tucker by more than 200 rushing yards and 20 rushing yards per game.

Nationally, only Michigan States Kenneth Walker III has more rushing yards in the FBS than Tucker.

Louisvilles defense has been below average this season. The unit is eighth in points allowed and ninth in yards yielded in the ACC during 2021. The Cardinals defense is also last in opponents red zone touchdown percentage and tied for second-to-last in giving up plays of more than 20 yards in the conference.

But one thing the Cardinals do fairly well is stopping the run. Louisville is fifth in rushing yards allowed per game allowed and seventh in opponents yards per carry.

Tucker can run on anybody, so Syracuse shouldnt shy away from using its ground attack just because thats one of the few strengths of the Louisville defense. Against Clemson, a superior run defense than Louisvilles, Tucker posted 157 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per carry.

But its important to note that Syracuse lost that game despite Tuckers dominance. Actually, Tucker has run over a lot of defenses in losing efforts this season.

In Syracuses four losses, Tucker has averaged 116.5 rushing yards and nearly 5.5 yards per carry. In two defeats this year, Tucker eclipsed the 150-yard mark.

The magic number for the Orange is Tucker getting just above that at 160. When hes run for more than 160 yards this year, Syracuse is 3-0. The Orange are 2-4 when he doesnt reach 160 rushing yards.

Tucker is going to get his yards this week. The question is will it be more than 160 or enough to keep up with Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. One of the few ACC rushing categories where Tucker isnt ranked first is rushing touchdowns. Cunningham leads that category with 15 — two more than anyone else in the conference.

Behind Cunningham, who also leads Louisville with 690 rushing yards, the Cardinals are one of three ACC teams averaging more than 200 rushing yards per week. Syracuse is first in the conference with 247.7 yards on the ground per game.

Syracuses run defense is ranked similarly to Louisvilles as well — fourth in the conference with 126 yards allowed per game. Louisville yields 133 rushing yards per contest.

If the Orange dont earn their sixth win this weekend, they will still have two more chances, but neither of those upcoming games will present Syracuse a better matchup for Tucker and the ground game. Syracuse ends the season against NC State and Pitt. Those two programs are first and second in run defense in the ACC.

Syracuses best opportunity to reach win No. 6 will be this weekend. Thats true even though the Orange are just 1-7 in Louisville since 2005.

Prediction: Louisville 21, Syracuse 17