By BJ Bennett
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb breaks down Louisville and Virginia.

The Virginia-Louisville matchup doesnt garner quite the same attention as some of the other cross-divisional matchups in college football or even in the ACC. That will particularly be the case with this years Cavaliers-Cardinals showdown occurring at the same time as Georgia-Auburn — perhaps the best cross-division rivalry in the sport.

But dont sleep on the Virginia-Louisville matchup. Since the Cardinals joined the ACC in 2014 and these two programs started playing each other every year, its been an extremely close rivalry. Louisville has a narrow 4-3 edge in the series while the Cavaliers have outscored the Cardinals, but just barely, 179-177.

Given that history and the fact both teams are 3-2 with one ACC win through five weeks this season, this Saturdays matchup should be a close affair as well.

While Virginia and Louisville are pretty equal in talent, the ways in which these two programs compete against each other and in the ACC are vastly different.

Virginia deploys a pass-happy attack and will likely continue to do that against Louisville, who possesses the worst-ranked pass defense in the league. The Cardinals should have their advantages on offense too with dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham. He leads the ACC with 10 rushing touchdowns and will be a handful for Virginias run defense, which is last in the conference.

Put all that together, and Virginia-Louisville should be an exciting, high-scoring affair.

Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong threw a career-low 268 yards in the win against Miami last Thursday. Yet, hes still leading the ACC with 394.6 passing yards per game, and its really not close. Kenny Pickett is second in that category to Armstrong with 346.2 passing yards per contest.

Only Western Kentuckys Bailey Zappe has more passing yards per game in the FBS than Armstrong through five weeks this season. Granted, part of the reason for Armstrongs ridiculous passing yards average is the volume of attempts he has each week. He is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, which is third behind Pickett and Sam Howell, but Armstrong is posting 44.8 passes per game. On average, thats eight more per game than any other ACC quarterback and 9-14 more attempts than what Pickett or Howell average.

With not much of a running game, Virginia has needed Armstrong to throw 40-plus times each week. Senior running back Wayne Taulapapa experienced a bit of a breakout game last week against Miami, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown on 11 attempts. But even so, the Cavaliers have averaged just 3.6 yards per rush in three ACC games this year.

Interestingly, similar to Armstrong, the amount of passing attempts Louisvilles defense faces each week may be skewing the statistics a bit. While the Cardinals are last in passing yards allowed in the ACC, they are more in the middle of the pack in terms of passing yards yielded per attempt (7.5; 8th in ACC).

With the emergence of Taulapapa last week, maybe Virginia will have a greater emphasis on running the ball going forward. But its going to be hard to resist not passing against a secondary that gave up 381 passing yards to Ole Miss in Week 1 and 324 passing yards against Wake Forest this past Saturday.

Louisville will counter attack with a running game thats been very consistent. The Cardinals have rushed for at least 131 yards every week, including a season-high 208 versus the Demon Deacons. They have also scored at least two rushing touchdowns in all five games to start the 2021 season.

Cunningham is the key, as he has 10 of Louisvilles 11 rushing touchdowns. Freshman running back Jalen Mitchell, who leads the Cardinals with 331 yards, has the other score on the ground.

While Cunningham is pretty deadly on the ground, hes not bad at passing either. He is averaging 8.0 yards per pass this season with a 63.8% completion percentage. Cunningham also has seven touchdowns versus just two interceptions.

Thanks in large part to its rushing attack, the Cardinals lead the ACC in time of possession. Ranked fourth in the conference in time of possession, that is one Virginias strengths as well.

To protect their secondary, the Cardinals must continue to emphasize their ground attack to control the pace and keep Armstrong on the sidelines as much as possible. Even so, the Cardinals are going to have to score too. Louisville had more than 34 minutes of possession Saturday against Wake Forest and still gave up 37 points.

Its such a shame Georgia-Auburn will kick off just a half hour after Virginia and Louisville do. Although it doesnt have the same history as that SEC rivalry, the Virginia-Louisville matchup has given fans plenty of entertainment in recent years and will likely again Saturday.

Prediction: Louisville 41, Virginia 40