By Dave Holcomb
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb discusses defensive development for Wake Forest.

With more data available than ever previously, we very much live in an analytic world. It takes a deep dive into the numbers to explain the 2020 football season for Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons finished the 2020 season ranked third in points per game and fourth in yards per contest in the ACC. The only ACC teams with more yards per game in 2020 posted a combined record of 28-7.

Yet, Wake Forest went 4-5, including 3-4 in the ACC.

x9cIts not always about numbers and stats and points, right? Part of it is situational football,x9d Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson said at ACC media days according to The Greenville News. x9cSometimes the ability to slow it down and run the football, protect a lead, keep your defense off the field, thats the sign of a great offense.x9d

Its also not always about offense. Wake Forest hasnt allowed fewer than 28 points per game since 2016. Last year, the Demon Deacons gave up 32.8 points per contest.

Not playing as concentrated an ACC schedule will help as will returning every offensive starter. But without better defensive play or a change in offensive philosophy, Wake Forest will have to score a lot of points to win every week.

If the Demon Deacons improve this year defensively, it will come from the secondary. Wake Forest had inexperienced defensive backs last season, but they played very well. So well, in fact, Wake Forest led the ACC with 1.4 interceptions per game.

Behind those ballhawking defensive backs, Wake Forest was first in the ACC with a 1.11 turnover margin. That was, by far, the best ACC mark in the category. Clemson was second best with a 0.67 turnover differential.

The turnover stats make Wake Forests losing 2020 record even more baffling. The offense moved the ball a lot, scored points, did well in the red zone and didnt turn it over much, yet still, it didnt lead to more than three ACC victories.

Time of possession isnt one of the more popular stats among the analytic crowd, but it may begin to tell why Wake Forest struggled to win despite a potent offense. The Demon Deacons finished ranked 12th in the ACC in time of possession with under 28 minutes of possession per game last year.

Granted, nine games is a small sample size. Wake Forest having a couple games with a low time of possession really skewed the average. But still, the Demon Deacons had the ball more than their opponent just once in the 2020 season.

Having control of the ball doesnt guarantee victories. What truly matters is what teams do with the ball when they have it. Wake Forest still won four games with only one of those where they won the time of possession.

Louisville was second in the ACC in time of possession yet ninth in points and ended the year 4-7.

But a poor time of possession does guarantee one thing — a greater chance of your defense wearing down at the end of games. A tired defense isnt going to be a unit that plays well when the game is on the line.

So if Wake Forest cant play better defensively, the answer to winning more games will be a more ball-control styled offense. The Demon Deacon defense cant blow a lead if it’s not on the field.

Of course, that will only be possible if the defense plays well at the beginning of games, allowing the offense to get a lead. The time of possession numbers fell out of whack in games where Wake Forest trailed by multiple touchdowns. The Demon Deacons won the time of possession against Syracuse, who they beat by 24.

Other than takeaways, Wake Forest didnt excel on defense in 2020. However, it will be particularly tough on Clawson and the offense if the pass rush is again the weakest part of the Demon Deacon defense. Wake Forest was second-to-last in the ACC in sacks per game last year.

Football teams with a great offense and play well defensively if they pressure the quarterback. Thats what teams need to do when they have the lead.

Wake Forest wasnt able to do that, though, and while the pass rush may be better this fall, it needs significant improvement. Defensive lineman Miles Fox, who recorded 10.5 tackles for loss in 2020, will be counted upon to lead the way.

If that pass rush doesnt improve, and the Wake Forest defense doesnt catch up to its offense, it will likely take a change in offensive philosophy for the Demon Deacons to post a winning ACC record for the first time under Clawson.