By Dave Holcomb
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb previews Pitt and Clemson.

Georgia Tech is the only ACC Coastal program with an all-time winning record against Clemson, and thats thanks in large part to a Yellow Jackets winning streak against the Tigers from 1908-34.

With a victory Saturday, though, Pitt can join Georgia Tech as the second ACC Coastal school with a winning record against the Tigers. Pitt enters Saturday with a 2-2 overall record versus Clemson.

But thats not likely to be on the mind of Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi or quarterback Kenny Pickett. Not when a victory will place the Panthers on track to win the Coastal division and perhaps their first ACC Championship. Not with a potential playoff berth on the line at Heinz Field.

Pitt doesnt have a long history of success against Clemson, but Narduzzi beat Dabo Swinney in Death Valley during the 2016 season. With Pickett behind center, Pitt also beat then-ranked No. 2 Miami in 2017.

Although that success should give Pitt confidence this week, this matchup has a different feeling. For one, its the Panthers that enter with a better record and as the ranked team. Las Vegas betting lines also consider Clemson the underdog, which is a role the Tigers havent played against an ACC opponent since 2014.

Those facts are shocking for any casual college football fan, but not for anyone watching the ACC this season. Pickett has emerged as the best ACC quarterback in a conference thats featured great play behind center this year. Pickett leads the ACC in passing touchdowns (21) and yards per attempt (9.4). Hes also second in passing yards per game (322.3) and completion percentage (69.8%).

Nationally, Pickett is ranked in the top 10 in all four of those categories. He is also the only quarterback in the country with at least 16 touchdowns and only one interception. If this production continues, Pickett will absolutely be in New York at the Heisman ceremony in December.

Behind Picketts historic start, Pitt is second in the country in points per game, and the Panthers are barely trail Ohio State for first in the category (the Buckeyes are scoring 48.5 points per game while Pitt averages 48.3 points per contest).

Pickett and the Panthers offense will face their biggest test of the season, though, against Clemson. While the Tigers have lost twice this season, Clemson is still dominating defensively. The Tigers are first in points allowed per game (12.5) and third in yards allowed per contest (314.7) in the ACC.

Whats unusual about the Clemson defense is the lack of pressure the unit has been generating on opposing quarterbacks. Clemson was tied (ironically, with Pitt) for first in the conference with 46 sacks last season. The Tigers led the ACC in that category despite not having a single defender reach 5.0 sacks. Incredibly, 11 Clemson defenders had at least 2.0 sacks, and 10 others recorded between 0.5-1.5 sacks.

This year, not having a single dominant pass rusher is not working very well for Clemson. Xavier Thomas leads the unit with 3.5 sacks, and the team is on pace for 16 fewer sacks than last season.

The Clemson pass rush likely wont improve against Pitt. Yet another one of Picketts strengths is avoiding sacks. Pitt has allowed 9.0 sacks in six games this season, which is tied for second-fewest in the ACC.

Slowing down Pickett can be done without getting sacks, but making him uncomfortable in the pocket is essential.

Virginia Tech held Pickett and the high-powered Panthers to 28 points last week in Blacksburg. Even for a Tigers defense giving up less than half that total per game, it will be an accomplishment for Clemson to hold Pitt under 30 points at Heinz Field this Saturday.

Therefore, the Tigers are going to have to score to win. Thats not something theyve done a lot of this year. Clemson is last in the ACC in points per game, and the Tigers havent scored more than 21 points in five games against Power 5 competition this season.

The good news is sophomore running back Kobe Pace has helped the Clemson offense improve a little bit over the last few weeks. Pace has 201 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the last two games.

Clemson must keep Pace involved early and often Saturday. Paces season high is 18 carries; he needs at least 20 attempts while averaging 5.0 yards per carry for Clemson to keep x9cpacex9d with Pickett and Pitts offense.

If Pace is moving the chains and eating clock, then thats less time the Clemson defense will spend defending Pickett. Still, thats a tall task for Pace going up against Pitts No. 2-ranked ACC run defense.

Pitts weakness defensively is giving up big plays. Narduzzi plays his cornerbacks in a lot of single coverage, and while they are largely successful with that strategy, it does sometimes lead to big completions or pass interference penalties down field.

But producing big offensive plays is arguably Clemsons biggest weakness. The Tigers are last in the ACC in plays producing 20 or more yards. The only ACC program with fewer plays of 30 or more yards than Clemson is Virginia Tech, and the Hokies scored just once last week against Pitt.

It wont be that bad, yet dont be surprised if this Clemson-Pitt matchup isnt particularly competitive. The time is now for Panthers football.

Prediction: Pitt 31, Clemson 20