By Dave Holcomb
SouthernPigskin.com

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Dave Holcomb discusses North Carolina’s need for a win versus Virginia.

The first place team of the ACC Coastal has lost at least two ACC games in three of the last four years the conference crowned division champions. The last time the ACC Coastal winner had only one loss was Miami in 2017.

In all likelihood, the ACC Coastal division winner will have two losses once again this fall. There doesnt appear to be an elite team in the division, but theres lots of good teams, which leads to more than an average amount of parity.

Even still, North Carolina — the favorite to win the Coastal prior to the season — can ill afford to start the year with two conference losses. That means North Carolinas matchup with Virginia this Saturday is about as close to a must-win game as one can have in Week 3.

The Cavaliers dont appear to be a major threat on paper, but after scoring more than 40 points in each of the first two weeks of the season, Virginia is more than capable of playing spoiler against North Carolina.

Thats especially true if the Tar Heels dont improve on offense. As important as it is for North Carolina to beat Virginia, its vital to do it while looking good. The Tar Heels scored 41.7 points per game last year, but they opened this season with just 10 points against Virginia Tech.

Quarterback Sam Howell entered 2021 as a Heisman candidate and potential high draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Howell reaching those individual accomplishments arent necessarily the key, but without offensive playmakers Michael Carter, Javonte Williams, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome from last years team, it appears early on that North Carolina will only go as far as Howell.

Then again, he needs help along the offensive line. The Tar Heels have allowed an ACC-high eight sacks through two weeks, including six in the first game against Virginia Tech. North Carolina struggled to protect the quarterback at times last season too, but still not like what weve seen in the first two weeks of 2021.

While from a national perspective this matchup is about what North Carolina will or wont be able to do, its Virginia who enters this weekend on a four-game winning streak in the series. Having won the ACC Coastal in 2019, the Cavaliers are also the program thats more recently earned a trip to the conference championship.

Just as surprisingly, Virginia comes into this matchup with the hotter offense. While playing William & Mary and Illinois helps, it was still not expected for the Virginia offense to be clicking better than North Carolina at this point.

The Cavaliers can thank junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong for the early offensive success. There hasnt been a more efficient signal caller in the ACC through two weeks. He has completed 71.6% of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt. Armstrong also has seven touchdowns and only one interception.

Howell is second in the ACC with 280 passing yards per game after two weeks. With a small sample, Armstrong leads the conference with almost 100 more passing yards per contest — 372.

Posting those types of numbers this Saturday will go a long way for Armstrong earning respect in the conference. Thats especially true if he can beat the Tar Heels while outdueling Howell.

In the matchup last year, Howell was spectacular, going 23 of 28 for 443 yards with four touchdowns. Armstrong didnt quite keep up, completing 12 of his 22 passes for 208 yards and three touchdowns with an interception, but Armstrong also led the Cavaliers with 66 rushing yards and scored on the ground.

Although Virginia didnt slow down Howells passing downfield, the Cavaliers did sack him five times and forced four fumbles (two from Howell), recovering two of them.

Imposing North Carolina into those types of mistakes again, overwhelming the Tar Heels offensive line, will be key to Virginia extending its winning streak in this series to five. Virginia last beat North Carolina in five straight matchups from 1987-91.

Prediction: North Carolina 30, Virginia 27