By Jacob Shoor
SouthernPigskin.com

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Georgia Tech requires a nice step up in three main categories: defeating UGA, winning bowls, and selling tickets.

Georgia Tech Athletics Director Dan Radakovich is leaving for the same job at Clemson. The biggest fallout from that move could be the head of Yellow Jackets football coach Paul Johnson. Johnson was hired by Radakovich, and when the AD who hired the football coach leaves, if that coach is not winning as the fan base expects, the new AD is going to take advantage of the situation to put his own man on the job.

Paul Johnson was an unquestionably brilliant coach in 1-AA football at Georgia Southern. His first team was his weakest, finishing 10-3. In his remaining four seasons in Statesville, PJ won two National Championships and had one runner-up finish.

The magnificence continued at Navy. After beginning with a 2-10 team, Johnson delivered an 8-5 team. That set the stage for the best Navy team in at least a generation: 10-2 with an Emerald Bowl championship. His final three Navy teams went 8-4, 9-4 and 8-4, making Paul Johnson the biggest name in Navy football since Roger Staubach. To frame Johnson’s accomplishments in Annapolis, George Welsh, who would go on to build UVA football into a competitor, had five winning teams at Navy and four losing teams to balance them.

The fairy tale seemed to be continuing on The Flats. Johnson tied for first in the ACC Coastal division in his first year, and he won the ACC in his second. So how could any AD consider replacing him?

The starting point is Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate: the in-state blood rivalry with Georgia. Johnson won his initial game against the Dawgs, but he has dropped three straight, including ruining the season in 2009 when he won the ACC. If Johnson loses to UGA again this year, calls for his head will be even louder than they are now. That will be compounded if the Dawgs win the SEC East. The simple fact is that as long as Georgia owns Georgia Tech, the Jackets football coach is a failure.

The second major factor is that Johnson is 0-4 in bowls at GT. However it might be overblown by some fans, Johnson’s offense does become easier to defend when a team has time to adjust to its unique features.

The third factor is that Johnson’s history suggests he may have apexed at GT. His best team at Navy was his third, which had seniors who had played as freshmen under previous coach Charlie Weatherbie and juniors who had been recruited by the previous staff. At GT, Johnson’s highest points are the victory over UGA in his first season and winning the ACC in his second campaign. And all the key players on both those teams had been recruited by Chan Gailey’s staff and had played under Gailey. Johnson’s fifth GT team, which lacks a single Gailey recruit, is shaping up to be worse than any Gailey team. It was embarrassed at home by mid-tier Sunbelt team Middle Tennessee and then slaughtered at home last week by BYU.

The fourth factor is that Johnson is widely assumed to be arrogantly defensive about his offense to the extent that he all but neglects defense and recruiting. A coach who is largely inflexible and is not winning big has no way adjust. If that coach is not well liked by high school coaches and players – and Johnson is not – he may be on a permanent down slide, or at best, fixed where he is in terms of wins, at least at that school.

The new AD is not likely to be prepared to make a hire of this magnitude immediately upon taking the job. That means that whoever gets the job has to be praying that Johnson can win two from among Maryland, UNC, and Duke, and not get blasted by Georgia. That would allow the new AD to spend a year preparing to replace Johnson should he remain mired in mediocrity for another season.

Here is what the next GT AD must face regarding Johnson’s future: Al Golden looks like the man to rebuild Miami unless it gets a probation as harsh as the one Penn St has; Larry Fedora has brought more excitement to UNC football in less than one season than Butch Davis did in four; David Cutcliffe has produced the best Duke team in a generation and seems to have stability for the future; Dabo Swinney is continuing to learn on the job and recruit like a beloved head coach of an SEC football giant; Jimbo Fisher has amassed even more talent than Dabo; Virginia Tech has too much blue collar talent to remain as average as it has been this year; Mike London might not make it as an ACC coach, but he has added to UVA’s talent pool. Plus there are the Dawgs and Mark Richt, who absolutely own the state and will until GT can beat them consistently.

And a rejuvenated Notre Dame is soon to be a regular part of the schedule.

With the kind of players he has now and coaching as he does now, Paul Johnson in the near future might find 6-6 teams as good as it ever gets.

My main advice to the new GT AD is to consider the bottom line of fans in Bobby Dodd. GT wages a war not merely to recruit against the SEC and the rest of the ACC, but to draw fans. In a major sense, it is better for GT to average 54,000 per game with a 7-5 team than to average 40,000 with a 9-3 team that wins the ACC Coastal. If you fail to grasp that, you may have trouble balancing your checkbook.

Paul Johnson and his offense do not draw fans, either to buy tickets or to watch on TV. PJ’s option offense is seen at this time as a quaint throwback or a bore by most fans, and that goes double in a TV market with an NFL franchise. A 7-5 Mike Leach or Bobby Petrino coached Jackets team will always outdraw a 9-3 Paul Johnson coached Jackets team, usually significantly so.

GT requires a nice step up in three main categories: defeating UGA, winning bowls, and selling tickets. If PJ cannot prove he can do at least two of the three by next year, GT’s new AD is either crazy or else has no money to fire Johnson and hire a new head coach.

And either would be bad for ACC football.

My tip to the next GT AD: start talking to Gus Malzahn.