By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com

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Matt Smith previews week 12 in the SEC.

SEC Week 12 Primer
This week was originally scheduled as an off-week for the SEC, but that quickly went by the wayside once postponements became necessary. The six-game schedule announced last Friday has been trimmed to five, as Ole Miss contact tracing issues will prevent it from making the trip to College Station to face No. 5 Texas A&M, a game moved back from Nov. 21 due to the Aggies similar issues at that time.

With the Rebels-Aggies game off the table, this schedule offers very little in the way of compelling matchups. Alabama and Florida are sizable favorites in what they hope will be short days for their key players with the SEC Championship Game coming next week. Georgia at Missouri could be a fun game with the Bulldogs needing a win to ensure a New Years Six bowl bid, while hot seat watch will be the focus of both Tennessee-Vanderbilt and Auburn-Mississippi State.

Will things go as planned? Or will Saturday turn the tide of either this season or future seasons? Lets look closer at how Week 12 in the SEC will shake out.

Southern Storylines
Smittys Surge
Alabamas Amari Cooper was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2014, but he couldnt overcome the prolific numbers of Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. This year, Crimson Tide wide receiver DeVonta Smiths biggest competition might be the guy that throws him the football every week. After a 200-plus yard, three-touchdown performance at LSU, Smith is in the mix for the sports most prestigious award, along with quarterback Mac Jones. Smith will need another big day on Saturday at Arkansas to head into Championship Weekend with a legitimate chance, but I dont think theres a player who dwarfs the competition at his petition more than Smith. If thats we want the Heisman to be, then Smith should win it.

Bayou Blues
LSU will face a top-six team for the third straight week on Saturday at Florida, with a loss ensuring the first losing season by a defending national champion in more than 50 years. The Gators have their sights set on Alabama next week, but the LSU-Florida rivalry is very bitter, so dont think Florida wont relish an opportunity to embarrass its annual cross-division opponent. LSU may turn to Max Johnson this week for his first career start under center after T.J. Finley was replaced last week against Alabama. Johnson will not have freshman tight end Arik Gilbert available, as Gilbert is sitting out the final two games and is reportedly considering a transfer.

Show Me a Six
Missouri has not had a winning season in SEC play since 2014, but the Tigers can clinch one on Saturday afternoon with a win over No. 9 Georgia, which would be their sixth win in the last seven games. Whats been most impressive about Eliah Drinkwitzs first season is that his team has won all kinds of different games. Hes won slobberknockers against South Carolina and Kentucky, while also coming out on top in shootouts against LSU and Arkansas. Georgia hopes to continue a strong finish behind J.T. Daniels, with this game being the only one of the Bulldogs final four contests not against one of the three worst teams in the SEC.

Fire Drills
How close to the hot seat are Gus Malzahn and Jeremy Pruitt? Malzahn has never really left it, but the apathy on The Plains is starting to reach dangerous levels. I think Malzahn probably survives regardless of outcome against Mississippi State on Saturday night in Starkville, but its been a frustrating season for Auburn, and you can never predict what exactly will happen there. For Pruitt, I also expect him to return in 2021, but there may be no choice if he somehow loses to a bad, thin and fractured Vanderbilt team this weekend. The Vols havent won a game in more than two months. A loss would likely mean Tennessee would follow up its eight-game winning streak with an eight-game losing streak after next weeks expected loss to Texas A&M.

Waiting Patiently
Speaking of the Aggies, they may now look back and wish they had tried to play Ole Miss on the originally scheduled date of Nov. 21, even with some very important players likely having to miss that game due to contact tracing. Texas A&M really needed a convincing win over a dangerous Rebels team to have any shot at leapfrogging an unbeaten Ohio State, but now all it has left is next weeks finale at 2-6 Tennessee. All the Aggies can do this weekend is wait, as among the four teams ranked ahead of them, only Alabama plays this weekend.

Trivia Time (answers below):
1. Who was the last SEC Championship Game participant to lose its final regular-season game?
2. Who was the last SEC team besides Auburn to win a home game against Alabama?
3. Who was the last wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy?

Previews and Predictions
(1) Alabama (-32.5) at Arkansas, Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Dan Orlovsky
Alabama is way too much of a well-oiled machine to be concerned about a letdown, but the Crimson Tides trip to Fayetteville does have plenty of elements that would suggest this wont be as crisp of a performance as weve seen from them over the past month. Alabama will try to run the football against an overmatched front seven, likely leading to a big day for No. 2 running back Brian Robinson. Id be surprised if Mac Jones throws more than 25 passes. Arkansass receivers may cause some problem for an Alabama secondary that hasnt faced a good quarterback in more than two months. This is too many points, even for Alabama. Arkansas will deliver a respectable performance to close its season. Prediction: Alabama 42, Arkansas 17

(9) Georgia (-13) at (25) Missouri, Noon ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Dave Neal and D.J. Shockley
Georgia has run for more than five yards per carry in three of its last four games. The Bulldogs now face a Missouri defense that allowed 292 yards on the ground to Arkansas last week. If Missouris offense can possess the ball for close to 30 minutes, there is an opportunity for Connor Bazelak to have some success against this Georgia defense, which has slipped a bit over the past month. I expect a back-and-forth game, but Missouri probably needs a couple takeaways to pull off this upset, and the Tigers have intercepted just two passes all season. A back-and-forth game will go the way of the Bulldogs in the second half. Prediction: Georgia 30, Missouri 20

Tennessee (-15) at Vanderbilt, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb
No game this week is more impossible to predict than this one. Despite very limited numbers, it appears that Vanderbilt will give it a go for its home finale. Whether theyre fully invested is a mystery given the firing of Derek Mason, the Sarah Fuller fallout, and the 0-8 record. Tennessee again showed some first-half fight in last weeks loss to Florida, but it all came unraveled late in the half and in the third quarter. Quarterback Harrison Bailey played like a promising true freshman in his first start, which is meant as both a critique and praise. If the Vols are dialed in, this is a blowout, much like the Commodores loss to Missouri. I saw enough investment from Tennessee last week to think the Vols can handle their business on Saturday afternoon. Prediction: Tennessee 38, Vanderbilt 10

LSU at (6) Florida (-23.5), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge
Kyle Trask plays his final game in The Swamp on Saturday night, and theres no reason that he shouldnt be able to take a ceremonial curtain call after being replaced during the second half. LSU self-imposed a bowl ban on Wednesday, and its clear theres nothing left in the tank for the 2020 Tigers. Dan Mullen loves to put a big number on the scoreboard when he can, but with Alabama looming, hes likely to tap the brakes much sooner than he may under different circumstances. LSUs offense will hit Todd Granthams defense for a couple big plays, but Trask will have a field day against a broken Tigers secondary and close out an unbeaten career as a starter in The Swamp. Prediction: Florida 45, LSU 14

Auburn (-6.5) at Mississippi State, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Auburn is probably playing for a Citrus Bowl berth on Saturday night in Starkville, as the 5-4 Tigers appear to be the best of a mediocre middle tier of the SEC. The Tigers have been terrible away from home this season, getting blown out by Alabama and Georgia, losing to 2-8 South Carolina, and barely escaping Ole Miss with the help of an officiating blunder. Theres more roster upheaval coming for the Bulldogs after the season, but despite a small number of available players, theyve kept fighting, hanging with both Georgia and Ole Miss for 60 minutes on the road in narrow losses. I smell an upset here, much like Mike Leachs first season at Washington State, when a bad Cougars team ended the season with a home upset of rival Washington. Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Auburn 20

Best Bets
Last Week: 2-3, -3 Musburgers
Season: 22-29-1, -19 Musburgers
TCU -21.5 vs. Louisiana Tech 3 5 Musburgers
Memphis +4.5 vs. Houston 3 4 Musburgers
Illinois +14.5 at Northwestern 3 3 Musburgers
Tennessee -15 at Vanderbilt 3 2 Musburgers
Navy +7 at Army 3 1 Musburger

Trivia Answers
1. Florida, 2016 (at Florida State)
2. Ole Miss (2014)
3. Desmond Howard, Michigan (1991)