By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com

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Matt Smith previews week four in the SEC.

Conference play in the SEC ramps up this week with five games, including two massive SEC West contests in Starkville and Arlington. The SEC East top three teams all play the SEC East bottom three teams, so the focus will be on the two big West games as we continue to look for separation between teams two through seven in college footballs toughest divisions.

Welcome to autumn, and welcome to Week 4 in the SEC.

This is a Big Week for:
Coach: Mark Stoops, Kentucky
October has a chance to be really fun for the Wildcats and their fans (no, not because basketball practice starts), but Kentucky first needs to finish off a perfect September on Saturday night at South Carolina. The Wildcats had to produce a late rally to survive Chattanooga last week and now head to Columbia to face a not particularly good Gamecocks team, but a challenging atmosphere in Williams-Brice Stadium. Kentucky is the better team, but it has all the pressure this week as Stoops tries to navigate his team through a potential trap game.

Player: K.J. Jefferson, QB, Arkansas
Arkansas hasnt beaten Texas A&M in 10 years. If the Razorbacks are finally able to end that skid, it will be because Jefferson made plays with both his arm and legs against a stout Texas A&M defense. Arkansas was able to win the line of scrimmage against Texas, but the Aggies present a sterner test in the trenches. Jefferson must make good decisions and be able to escape pressure. If so, the Hogs could wake up on Sunday as a top-10 team.

Unit: LSU Offensive Line
The LSU defense and passing games have recovered nicely from the opening-week loss at UCLA, but the Tigers still arent running the football with any success. Mississippi State has an undervalued defense and will have a loud Davis Wade Stadium crowd behind them for Saturdays key game. With most of the Bulldogs focus likely to be on slowing star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, the LSU running game should have an opportunity to thrive, but that is strictly an idea with no proof of concept through three weeks.

Trivia Time
1. In what year did Kentucky last finish September undefeated?
2. Who did Jerry Jones and Arkansas defeat in the Cotton Bowl to win the 1964 national title?
3. Who is the last SEC East head coach to defeat Florida in his first season at that school?

Game Predictions
LSU (2-1) at Mississippi State (2-1), Noon ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Dan Orlovsky
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Mississippi State 44, LSU 34
Current Streak: Mississippi State – 1
Current Streak in Starkville: LSU 3 1
Line: LSU -2.5
Over/Under: 56
The first SEC West division game of the 2021 season is a significant one. LSU has stewed for two weeks since losing to UCLA, but hasnt faced an opponent good enough to truly put that loss to the Bruins behind them. Mississippi State is perhaps more annoyed after a controversy-filled 31-29 loss at Memphis. After last years 44-34 shootout, this game should be much more defensive. The Bulldogs arent throwing the ball downfield with much success, while the Tigers arent running the ball well at all. Starkville is a tough place to play, and I think Mississippi State rides its defense and home crowd to a mild upset.
Prediction: Mississippi State 24, LSU 20 (Mississippi State/under)

Missouri (2-1) at Boston College (3-0), Noon ET (ESPN2)
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Rocky Boiman
Series History: First Meeting
Line: Missouri -2.5
Over/Under: 59
Boston College is 3-0, but the Eagles are completely untested and will be without quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who was lost for the season a week ago with a hand injury. Missouris defense will face a stout Boston College offensive line and in need of a rebound after getting gashed on the ground by Kentucky two weeks ago. Backup quarterback Dennis Grosel is a capable runner. I didnt like this matchup for Missouri in the summer, and even without Jurkovec, the combination of Boston Colleges ground game and a well-coached defense under head coach Jeff Hafley has me calling for a victory for the home team on Saturday in Chestnut Hill.
Prediction: Boston College 28, Missouri 24 (Boston College/under)

(2) Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (1-2), Noon ET (SECN)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb
Last Meeting: 2019 3 Georgia 30, Vanderbilt 6
Current Streak: Georgia – 3
Current Streak in Nashville: Georgia – 3
Line: Georgia -34.5
Over/Under: 52
If Clemson and UAB couldnt score on this Georgia defense, Vanderbilt certainly isnt. The Bulldogs offense has put up nearly 100 points in the past two weeks, easing many of the concerns coming out of a touchdown-less performance against Clemson. The Commodores do nothing well defensively, ranking No. 12 in the SEC in pass efficiency, No. 13 in rushing yards per carry, and having just one takeaway and one sack in three games. Playing in front of a stadium that should be about 80 percent Georgia fans in Nashville, the Bulldogs can name their score.
Prediction: Georgia 49, Vanderbilt 10 (Georgia/over)

(7) Texas A&M (3-0) vs. (16) Arkansas (3-0) (Arlington), 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Texas A&M 42, Arkansas 31
Current Streak: Texas A&M 3 9
Line: Texas A&M -5.5
Over/Under: 48
I wish this game were in Fayetteville, but Aggies and Razorbacks due tend to pack AT&T Stadium every September for the Southwest Classic, creating a less sterile atmosphere than many neutral-site games. Texas A&M presents a much more significant challenge for the Arkansas running game than Texas did, adding to the importance of K.J. Jefferson making good decisions with the football. The Aggies offense remains a work in progress as Zach Calzada prepares for his second career start. The whole hasnt quite matched the sum of the parts through three games, but it will have to on Saturday afternoon for Texas A&M to hold serve in anticipation of its collision with Alabama in two weeks. Arkansas is legitimate, but this task might be just a bit too tough. This game usually ends in heartbreak for the Hogs, and no sports appreciates traditions more than college football.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Arkansas 23 (Arkansas/over)

Georgia State (1-2) at (23) Auburn (2-1), 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister
Series History: First Meeting
Line: Auburn -27
Over/Under: 57
Auburn wraps up non-conference play against Georgia State, who recorded its first win of the season last week against Charlotte. After getting torched for 102 points in the first two weeks, the Panthers allowed just nine last Saturday. Auburns offense, despite scoring 60 points in each of the first two weeks, was dogged by passing game limitations in last weeks loss at Penn State. With eight SEC games in nine weeks ahead, this would be a great time for a wide receiver or two to emerge as a consistent playmaker to complement Tank Bigsby and a solid ground attack.
Prediction: Auburn 45, Georgia State 14 (Auburn/over)

Tennessee (2-1) at (11) Florida (2-1, 0-1 SEC), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Greg McElroy
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Florida 31, Tennessee 19
Current Streak: Florida – 4
Current Streak in Gainesville: Florida – 8
Line: Florida -20
Over/Under: 62
Another year, another Tennessee-Florida game that barely registers on the radar. The 890s child in me weeps, but alas, it looks like a comfortable 16th victory in 17 meetings for the Gators in this once all-important rivalry. Josh Heupel has been coy about his quarterback situation after Hendon Hooker started for an injured Joe Milton last week and played well in a blowout win over Tennessee Tech. The numbers look good for the Vols run defense, but the competition has been weak, as even Pittsburgh isnt a good running team. Florida sliced and diced Alabama on the ground this week, and theres no good reason to deviate from that plan on Saturday night. Tennessee should have some success through the air, but the Florida defensive front has been impressive. I expect a fair amount of points, but many coming after the outcome has been decided.
Prediction: Florida 49, Tennessee 27 (Florida/over)

Kentucky (3-0) at South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Announcers: Brian Custer and Kelly Stouffer
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Kentucky 41, South Carolina 18
Current Streak: Kentucky – 1
Current Streak in Columbia: South Carolina – 1
Line: Kentucky -5.5
Over/Under: 49
This is a dangerous game for the undefeated Wildcats. South Carolina is full of flaws, but the defense has shown a spark at times this season with eight sacks and seven takeaways through the first three weeks. Kentucky has been sloppy with the football this season with eight turnovers, so if theres a clear path to victory for the Gamecocks, its continuing those turnover margin trends. Kentucky likely reverts back to its bread and butter this week with the ground game, asking Will Levis to create some shot plays here and there rather than throw it 35 times like he did a week ago. I cant pick a team to win strictly because of turnovers, so Ill call for Kentucky to get out of Columbia umblemished, but this will be a close, hard-fought win that should be celebrated regardless of style.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 20 (Kentucky/under)

Southern Miss (1-2) at (1) Alabama (3-0), 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Series History: Alabama leads, 37-5-2
Last Meeting: 2019 3 Alabama 49, Southern Miss 7
Line: Alabama -45
Over/Under: 58
Much like Arkansas had a week ago, this is a classic sandwich game for Alabama in between last weeks hard-fought win at Florida and next weeks showdown with red-hot Ole Miss. The Golden Eagles are struggling under new head coach Will Hall, losing comfortably to both South Alabama and Troy. The Crimson Tide have some things to clean up from their survival in Gainesville before the Rebels roll in, but it likely wont be apparent to us outsiders on Saturday night against an opponent of poor quality. At night, it should be a good atmosphere in Bryant-Denny Stadium, and I expect a crisper performance from No. 1 than we saw two weeks ago against Mercer.
Prediction: Alabama 59, Southern Miss 7 (Alabama/over)

Best Bets
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 8-7
Notre Dame +6.5 vs. Wisconsin
Texas -8.5 vs. Texas Tech
Western Michigan -3 vs. San Jose State
Arizona State -14.5 vs. Colorado
New Mexico State +17 vs. Hawaii

The Best Game Ive Ever Watched On September 18:
Sept. 25, 2008: Oregon State 27, No. 1 USC 21
No. 1 USC came to Corvallis fresh off of a dominating win over Ohio State and looking to avenge a loss that snapped a three-year regular-season winning streak in its last trip to Reser Stadium in 2006. Oregon State had already suffered two defeats to Stanford and Penn State, and with arguably the best defense in the country, there was little concern in the land of Troy about the Thursday night contest against the Beavers.

30 minutes in, it was 21-0 Oregon State, as the Rodgers brothers, wide receiver James and running back Jacquizz, scored all three first-half touchdowns to stun the mighty Trojans. USC finally settled into the game in the third quarter with a pair of Mark Sanchez touchdown passes, but the Beavers defense clamped down after that.

Jacquizz Rodgers added his second touchdown of the night late in the fourth quarter, and after Sanchezs third scoring pass of the day trimmed the lead to 27-21, the Beavers recovered an onsides kick attempt to seal the win and send a packed house in Reser Stadium onto the field to celebrate.

Oregon State completed a successful season with an infamous 3-0 Sun Bowl win over Pittsburgh, while USC wouldnt lose again and finished 12-1 with a Rose Bowl win over Penn State, but were left out of the BCS National Championship Game due to the shocking result from a late September night in Oregon.

Sundays Projected Top 10
1. Alabama (1)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. Oklahoma (4)
5. Iowa (5)
6. Penn State (6)
7. Texas A&M (7)
8. Clemson (9)
9. Cincinnati (8)
10. Ohio State (10)
Dropped out: None

Trivia Answers
1. 2018 (5-0)
2. Nebraska
3. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005)