Week Nine SEC Primer
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By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com
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Matt Smith previews week nine in the SEC.
October comes to a close with a light SEC schedule, as six of 14 teams are idle. Three of Saturdays four games do have some intrigue, including a pair with point spreads under three points. No. 1 Georgia faces its toughest remaining test, so if theres any chance of a resulting preventing the Bulldogs from cruising into Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game at 12-0 five weeks from now, its probably going to happen this week.
Even with a limited schedule, the SEC still has one of the two most appealing games in entire country, so this week is less of a dud than last Saturday. Im excited. I hope you are too. Its time to tackle Week 9 in the SEC.
This is a Big Week for:
Coach: Mark Stoops, Kentucky
At minimum, Kentucky is still very much in the thick of the Sugar Bowl race. The Wildcats have arguably their toughest remaining game on Saturday night at Mississippi State, a team that did not score a single offensive point in last years meeting. Kentucky has a degree of expectation now, and the pressure is on to deliver on a golden opportunity for a historic season. The 8Cats are rested and recovered from the thumping at Georgia, and a whiff of fraudulence could be detected if they cant get back on track in Starkville.
Player: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Dan Mullen hasnt named a starter for the Cocktail Party, but it seems like this has to be a Richardson game. The young quarterback has dazzled at times this season, but has also been prone to some maddening turnovers. Florida has nothing to lose against No. 1 Georgia, so turning Richardson loose is worth the risk. Stretching the field is the only way to potentially have success against the mighty Bulldogs defense.
Unit: Ole Miss Offensive Line
Due to a slew of injuries, the Rebels had little choice but to rely on the run last week against LSU. That required the offensive line to move some purple and gold bodies, and the unit handled their business, with Ole Miss gashing the Tigers for 266 yards on the ground. The story might be similar this week, but Auburns defensive front is a step up from LSU. Matt Corral cant take a beating, so the Rebels three-headed monster in the backfield needs the opportunity to turn five-yard gains into fifty-yard gains.
Trivia Time
1. When was the last time an unranked team defeated a ranked team in the Cocktail Party?
2. Before coming to Kentucky as offensive coordinator, at what Division II did Mike Leach coach for five years to help launch his career and the Air Raid offense?
3. Who won more SEC games 3 Missouri quarterback James Franklin or Vanderbilt head coach James Franklin?
Game Predictions
Missouri (3-4, 0-3 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-4 SEC), 3 p.m. ET (SECN)
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Missouri 41, Vanderbilt 0
Current Streak: Missouri – 1
Current Streak in Nashville: Vanderbilt 3 1
Line: Missouri -16
Over/Under: 64
The bit of promise Vanderbilt had shown in October went by the wayside in last weeks 45-6 pasting by Mississippi State. Missouri has dropped six straight games against Power Five opponents, but it has had a week off to try to salvage what seems like a lost season. The Tigers should be able to outscore the Commodores, which is why this line is so high despite each team being without an SEC win. Ill begrudgingly lay the points with a team off of an idle week against a worse team playing for the ninth time in nine weeks.
Prediction: Missouri 42, Vanderbilt 24 (Missouri/over)
(1) Georgia (7-0, 5-0 SEC) vs. Florida (4-3, 2-3 SEC), 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Florida 44, Georgia 28
Current Streak: Florida – 1
Line: Georgia -14
Over/Under: 51
This game has some parallels to 2017, when Georgia entered this game undefeated for the first time since 2005, and three-loss Florida was in shambles with a head coach who would be gone the day after the game. Despite a season again trending in the wrong direction, Dan Mullen isnt on the hot seat, but he does have a quarterback problem. This should probably be the week that Anthony Richardson finally takes over, but Mullens self-confidence may convince him that hes savvy enough to devise a game plan to have success against this Bulldogs defense with Emory Jones. This line seems too low, but I do think Florida circles the wagons and plays pretty well on both sides of the ball. That leaves me in a quandary, where I like Florida to be competitive, but Georgia to still find a way to cover.
Prediction: Georgia 38, Florida 20 (Georgia/over)
(10) Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at (18) Auburn (5-2, 2-1 SEC), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Auburn 35, Ole Miss 28
Current Streak: Auburn 3 5
Current Streak in Auburn: Auburn 3 2
Line: Auburn -2.5
Over/Under: 66
Michigan-Michigan State might have the most significance of any game this weekend, but no matchup is more fascinating than the Rebels and the Tigers on Saturday night on the Plains. Advantages for Auburn include a week to rest, a beat-up Ole Miss team, a confident quarterback and the magic of Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Rebels have an improving defense, the best quarterback in the country, and two of the sharpest offensive minds calling plays. The SEC West is a grind, and I cant help but think Ole Miss is in a precarious position with the depth issues starting to plague them. Before the season, I predicted this game as a 5-2 Auburn team beating a 6-1 Ole Miss team. Its too late to turn back now.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Ole Miss 28 (Auburn/under)
(12) Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-3, 2-2 SEC), 7 p.m. ET (SECN)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 2
Current Streak: Kentucky 3 1
Current Streak in Starkville: Mississippi State 3 5
Line: Kentucky -1.5
Over/Under: 47
If you enjoy contrasting styles, check out the Wildcats and Bulldogs on Saturday night. Last years 24-2 loss in Lexington was an embarrassment for Mississippi State and Mike Leachs offense, as Kentucky intercepted six passes. Why wont the same thing happen again this year? Are the cowbells of Davis Wade Stadium that much of a difference? Those are the questions Ive pondered, and I dont have many good answers. Kentucky may struggle to score, but this offense, despite still being imbalanced, is good enough to convert a couple big passing plays every game. Thatll be the difference in a pretty ugly game, as the Wildcats shut down the Dink and Dunk Raid to move to 7-1.
Prediction: Kentucky 23, Mississippi State 17 (Kentucky/under)
Best Bets
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 23-17
Wake Forest -16.5 vs. Duke
UCLA +6.5 at Utah
Michigan State +4.5 vs. Michigan
Florida State +10 at Clemson
Virginia +2.5 at BYU
The Best Game Ive Ever Watched On October 30:
Oct. 30, 2004: No. 12 Michigan 45, Michigan State 37 (3OT)
If there was one thing Michigan State football was known for in the wild four-year John L. Smith era from 2003-2006, it was topsy-turvy games with Spartans teams all over the map. That was the case on Halloween weekend of 2004 in Ann Arbor, when the 4-3 Spartans were looking to shock rival Michigan, who was still very much in the national title and Rose Bowl race with a 7-1 record and no Big Ten defeats.
The visitors took an early 7-0 with a 72-yard touchdown run from DeAndra Cobb, and the Spartans added two more long scoring drives to take a 17-10 halftime lead. The defenses controlled the third quarter, with neither team scoring, leaving the 110,000-plus in Michigan Stadium nervous about a depressing defeat to their little brother.
Cobb broke loose for a 64-yard score midway through the fourth quarter, putting the Spartans up 27-10 and sending many maize and blue fans to the exits. Smith had a Smith moment, however, as the Wolverines rallied back with 10 points in 15 seconds sandwiched by an onsides kick recovery. After a stop on defense, it took Michigan just 14 seconds to tie the game, as Braylon Edwards made an acrobatic 21-yard reception for the touchdown that leveled the game with three minutes remaining.
The teams traded field goals and then touchdowns in overtime before Edwards caught his third touchdown of the day in the third overtime, this one from 24 yards out. The demoralized Spartans could do nothing on their possession, committing an offensive pass interference penalty and unthreateningly turning the ball over on downs, allowing Michigan to stay perfect in Big Ten play.
The Wolverines would go on to claim a share of the Big Ten title despite a loss to rival Ohio State, going back to the Rose Bowl and losing a memorable game to Vince Young and Texas. Michigan State never recovered from the collapse in the Big House, losing three of its next four games to finish 5-7 and out of a bowl.
Sundays Projected Top 10
1. Georgia (1)
2. Cincinnati (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Ohio State (5)
5. Michigan State (8)
6. Oklahoma (4)
7. Oregon (7)
8. Iowa (9)
9. Michigan (6)
10. Notre Dame (11)
Dropped out: (10) Ole Miss
Trivia Answers
1. 2014 (Florida 38, No. 9 Georgia 20)
2. Valdosta State
3. Vanderbilt head coach James Franklin (11 to 9)
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