By Matt Smith
SouthernPigskin.com

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Matt Smith previews week three in the SEC.

In college football, it normally takes three weeks to have a gauge on every team. By that point, each team has played someone with a pulse, or at least a team with comparable personnel. Most of the SEC has already done that through two weeks, save the Auburn Tigers, who have shellacked Akron and Alabama State in two non-descript but impressive home games. Now comes a trip to Penn State in the most anticipated game of the weekend. Once we have a result in Happy Valley, I will feel comfortable trying to put rankings together with a sense of where all 14 teams stand before conference play ramps up.

With only two conference games this week, its another busy slate with a dozen games. The early window provides mostly buy games, but the late afternoon and evening time slots are full of attractiveness. Well touch on all of them here. Lets go.

This is a Big Week for:
Coach: Mike Leach, Mississippi State and Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
Both Leach and Kiffin will be coaching in lookahead spots against opponents who are too good to overlook. Mississippi State heads north to Memphis to take on a 2-0 Tigers team with another dangerous offense, while Kiffin and Ole Miss welcome Tulane to Oxford, a fortnight removed from nearly upsetting Oklahoma. The Bulldogs open SEC play next week against LSU, while Ole Miss gets an early idle week before going to Alabama. Theyre massive games, but theyll be a lot less massive if the Bullies and Rebs arent dialed in this week and take an unexpected loss.

Player: Bo Nix, QB, Auburn
Nix has calmed talk of a quarterback controversy on The Plains with two quality performances, but playing Penn State on the road at night is his first true test to see if the new Auburn offense is truly a better fit for him. The challenges are many. The Nittany Lions have allowed just 23 points in two games, and audible pre-snap communication is not an option in Beaver Stadium. Saturday night will be a significant mental and physical trial for Nix.

Unit: Florida Defensive Backs
One of the schools that likes to claim the cDBUd moniker has an opportunity to earn that title on Saturday when Alabama rolls into Gainesville. The Gators are pretty young on the back end of their defense, but the Crimson Tide will also be bringing a passing attack that hasnt played a ton of football together, led by quarterback Bryce Young, making his first road start. For Florida to be competitive in this game, the secondary must be both playmakers and big play preventers. Easier said than done.

Trivia Time
1. Who was the last Florida starting quarterback besides Tim Tebow to defeat Alabama?
2. Who was the last SEC team to win a road game against a Big Ten team?
3. How many combined rushing yards did South Carolinas George Rogers and Georgias Herschel Walker have in their battle of future Heisman Trophy winners in 1980?

Game Predictions
New Mexico (2-0) at (7) Texas A&M (2-0), Noon ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour and Matt Stinchcomb
Series History: Texas A&M leads 4-0
Last Meeting: 2017 3 Texas A&M 55, New Mexico 14
Line: Texas A&M -28
Over/Under: 50.5
Zach Calzada makes his first career start under center for the Aggies after finishing last weeks narrow win against Colorado. The Texas A&M offense has been underwhelming through two weeks, but Calzadas gutty effort in Denver should have him in command of the locker room while Haynes King recovers from a leg injury. New Mexico is 2-0, but very much untested. The Lobos are led by Kentucky transfer quarterback Terry Wilson, who started in Kyle Field in 2018. The Wildcats managed just 17 points that night, and itll be a surprise if Wilson and New Mexico reach that mark on Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Texas A&M 38, New Mexico 14 (New Mexico/over)

Chattanooga (1-1) at Kentucky (2-0), Noon ET (ESPN+)
Announcers: Mike Morgan and Ben Hartsock
Series History: First Meeting
Line: No Line
Over/Under: N/A
All credit to Kentucky for ensuring the three teams it is paying to come to Lexington all have zero chance of defeating the Wildcats. It was Louisiana-Monroe two weeks ago, it will be New Mexico State in late November, and its the 1-1 Moccasins of Chattanooga on Saturday afternoon. Pump the brakes on Kentucky being a pass-happy offense after the 8Cats ran for more than 300 yards on the ground last week against Missouri. Expect nothing but vanilla from Kentucky on Saturday, as the schedule is about to get really fun.
Prediction: Kentucky 41, Chattanooga 7

SE Missouri State (0-2) at Missouri (1-1), Noon ET (ESPN+)
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Dave Steckel
Series History: Missouri leads 4-0
Last Meeting: 2019 3 Missouri 50, SE Missouri State 0
Line: No Line
Over/Under: N/A
Missouri gets to bounce back from a tough loss at Kentucky when Southeast Missouri State makes the short trip northwest to Columbia. The Redhawks dont appear to be very good, having been blasted by Southern Illinois and defending national champion Sam Houston State in their first two games. After two competitive contest, I sense a dip in focus from the Tigers this week. It wont matter one iota.
Prediction: Missouri 49, SE Missouri State 14

Tennessee Tech (0-2) at Tennessee (1-1), Noon ET (ESPN+)
Announcers: Kevin Brown and Hutson Mason
Series History: Tennessee leads 6-0
Last Meeting: 2016 3 Tennessee 55, Tennessee Tech 0
Line: No Line
Over/Under: N/A
The drive from Cookeville to Knoxville is generally picturesque in the fall. Lets hope the Eagles enjoy the scenery, as after being outscored 78-14 in losses to Samford and Furman, there wont be much optimism of staying at all competitive with Tennessee. The Vols may have to go with Hendon Hooker at quarterback this week, which might be the best thing for this offense, particularly the deep passing attack.
Prediction: Tennessee 52, Tennessee Tech 6

(1) Alabama (2-0) at (11) Florida (2-0), 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Alabama 52, Florida 46 (SEC Championship Game)
Current Streak: Alabama – 7
Current Streak in Gainesville: Alabama – 1
Line: Alabama -15.5
Over/Under: 58
The first major SEC conference game of the season takes place in The Swamp, which hasnt been the scene of many big games lately with Tennessee and Florida State in shambles and Georgia never playing there. This game will certainly feel different, but skepticism reigns about whether or not the Gators can keep all of their fans in the stadium in the fourth quarter. A year ago, playing Alabama was about whether or not the opposing offense could keep up. This season, its more about can the opposing defense do enough to offset a presumptive struggle from the offense? Given that, Im not sure it matters whether Emory Jones, Anthony Richardson or both are under center for the Gators. Todd Granthams defense is capable of confusing Bryce Young and the Crimson Tide offense, but they also often confuse themselves. Thats when the breakdowns happen, and thats why Jameson Williams and John Metchie will likely be behind the defense at some point on Saturday afternoon. Ill believe a team not named Ole Miss can score more than 20 points on this Alabama defense when I see it, and Floridas defense wont have enough in the arsenal to seriously threaten No. 1.
Prediction: Alabama 37, Florida 17 (Alabama/under)

Mississippi State (2-0) at Memphis (2-0), 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Kirk Morrison
Series History: Mississippi State leads, 34-10
Last Meeting: 2011 3 Mississippi State 59, Memphis 14
Line: Mississippi State -3.5
Over/Under: 63.5
An interesting early schedule for the Bulldogs continues in Memphis on Saturday afternoon. The Mississippi State defense has been stout for the last five quarters, but the offense has done little outside of the fourth-quarter rally against Louisiana Tech. Theyll likely need to put up some points against the Tigers, who are coming off of a 55-50 road win at Arkansas State and have amassed nearly 1,300 yards in two games this season. Im not sold on this Bulldogs team, particularly the offense, but I think they can mask their flaws for another week at least.
Prediction: Mississippi State 34, Memphis 31 (Memphis/over)

Georgia Southern (1-1) at (20) Arkansas (2-0), 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Dave Neal and Deuce McAllister
Series History: First Meeting
Last Meeting:
Line: Arkansas -23
Over/Under: 52.5
It looks like a down year for Georgia Southern, which limped past Gardner-Webb in Week 1 and was routed at FAU last Saturday. That bodes well for Arkansas in the biggest sandwich game a team can possibly have with the Texas win still the talk of Fayetteville, and a showdown with Texas A&M looming next week. The Razorbacks arent talented enough to just go through the motions and not have to worry, so I do expect the Eagles to hang around longer than expected, but without a dangerous quarterback, there wont be any perilous moments for the Hogs.
Prediction: Arkansas 34, Georgia Southern 16 (Georgia Southern/under)

South Carolina (2-0) at (2) Georgia (2-0), 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge
Last Meeting: 2020 3 Georgia 45, South Carolina 16
Current Streak: Georgia – 1
Current Streak in Athens: South Carolina – 1
Line: Georgia -31
Over/Under: 48.5
It looks like itll be another week of Stetson Bennett IV under center for Georgia, as J.T. Daniels continues to battle a lingering but manageable abdominal injury. Bennett was brilliant against UAB last week, creating some conversation that he could regain his starting role that he lost last November even when Daniels is fully healthy. The Gamecocks have been solid on the defensive side of the ball through two weeks, but this is a major step up in competition. If Bennett again lights it up through the air, Kirby Smart and his staff may have some soul-searching to do, but I expect a few more bumps on Saturday night in Athens. Will Georgias defense allow a touchdown for the first time all season? I wouldnt bet on it.
Prediction: Georgia 38, South Carolina 9 (South Carolina/under)

(22) Auburn (2-0) at (10) Penn State (2-0) 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit
Series History: Tied, 1-1
Last Meeting: 2002 3 Auburn 13, Penn State 9 (2003 Citrus Bowl)
Line: Penn State -6
Over/Under: 53
These are the September games we all love 3 unique, on-campus and in an atmosphere that no NFL game could ever match. Auburns potent running game with Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter gets its first test of the season against a Penn State defense that held Wisconsin to just 3.1 yards per carry in the season opener. If theres a big play to be had in the passing game, its more likely to come from the Nittany Lions, as wide receiver Jahan Dotson has averaged 17 yards per catch since the start of the 2020. Bo Nix must strike some fear into the Penn State defense, or the running game wont be as effective as it needs to be. The junior quarterback looks confident, and two years of SEC games should prevent him from experiencing any intimidation in Beaver Stadium. I like the feel of this Auburn team, and the roll of the close game dice that went in Penn States favor in Madison wont have such a fortunate outcome this week.
Prediction: Auburn 27, Penn State 21 (Auburn/under)

Central Michigan (1-1) at LSU (1-1), 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic
Series History: First Meeting
Line: LSU -20.5
Over/Under: 65
We wont know until SEC play starts, but LSU may have figured some things out on defense in last weeks near-shutout of McNeese. The offense is still out of sorts, however, and the intrigue on Saturday night in Baton Rouge will be with the Tigers offense and their fading rushing attack. The Chippewas hung with Missouri two weeks ago in a 34-24 loss, and head coach Jim McElwain has returned after missing the trip to Columbia after an appendectomy. As great as star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte is, LSU needs more complements. Im not sure they have that, especially with running back John Emery Jr. now lost for the season, and I expect another struggle in Tiger Stadium this week.
Prediction: LSU 31, Central Michigan 16 (Central Michigan/under)

Tulane (1-1) at (17) Ole Miss (2-0), 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Mike Golic Jr.
Series History: Ole Miss leads 42-29
Last Meeting: 2012 3 Ole Miss 39, Tulane 0
Line: Ole Miss -14
Over/Under: 73.5
Unlike Kentucky, Ole Miss has challenged itself in two of its three buy games this season, starting Saturday night against a Tulane team who gets to finally head back home to New Orleans next week after relocating to Birmingham following Hurricane Ida. The Green Wave scared Oklahoma two weeks ago and hope to find themselves in another shootout against the Rebels. Quarterback Michael Pratt has five touchdowns and no interceptions this season, while also being a factor in the running game in Tulanes unique offensive scheme. Matt Corral looks as good as any quarterback in the country right now, and I dont expect him to make the number of mistakes that Oklahomas Spencer Rattler did that kept Tulane in that game longer than it should have been.
Prediction: Ole Miss 48, Tulane 24 (Ole Miss/under)

Stanford (1-1) at Vanderbilt (1-1), 8 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Rocky Boiman
Series History: First Meeting
Line: Stanford -11
Over/Under: 49
After Northwestern and Duke play in the afternoon, a second battle of nerds will take place in Nashville between two teams who surprisingly leveled their records in Week 2. Stanford looks to have found its quarterback in Tanner McKee, who guided a blowout win at USC last week. The Commodores also stabilized under center, as Ken Seals played the whole way at Colorado State and led the team back from a 14-0 deficit to win in the final seconds. A third straight road trip is going to have some effect on Stanford, but the Cardinal were on the road for most of last season after not being allowed to practice and play in Palo Alto. Theyre mentally tough, and there shouldnt be any problems in Nashville.
Prediction: Stanford 34, Vanderbilt 10 (Stanford/under)

Best Bets
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 6-4
Illinois +8 vs. Maryland (Friday)
Charlotte +3 at Georgia State
UTSA -13 vs. Middle Tennessee
Toledo -14.5 vs. Colorado State
Kent State +22.5 at Iowa

The Best Game Ive Ever Watched On September 18:
Sept. 18, 2004: No. 13 Tennessee 30, No. 11 Florida 28
If one game could summarize the entire Ron Zook era at Florida, it was the 2004 meeting between the Gators and rival Tennessee in Knoxville. It was the first primetime meeting between the two SEC East powers since 1999, with CBS airing the game to a national audience.

Trailing 28-21 in the fourth quarter, Tennessee scored what looked like would be the game-tying touchdown, but kicker James Wilhoit missed the extra point to preserve a 28-27 Florida lead. The Gators were unable to run out the clock, and following a third-down failure, wide receiver Dallas Baker was penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct after the play, forcing Florida to punt from 15 yards further back. In addition, the game clock was not restarted on the ready for play signal, giving Tennessee nearly a minute to work with instead of 30 seconds.

The Vols took advantage of the extra time and marched inside the Florida 35-yard line with the clock winding down, giving Wilhoit a change to avenge his earlier gaffe. From 50 yards out, Wilhoit sent Neyland Stadium into a frenzy by splitting the uprights, as the Vols stole a 30-28 victory.

The crazy end-of-game sequence had significant ramifications. Tennessee would go on to win the SEC East and finish 10-3, losing only to Notre Dame and twice to undefeated Auburn. Florida fired Zook a month later with the Gators sitting at 4-3, setting the stage for the Urban Meyer era. Maybe it wasnt such a bad night for the Gators after all.

Sundays Projected Top 10
1. Alabama (1)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Oklahoma (3)
4. Oregon (4)
5. Iowa (5)
6. Clemson (6)
7. Cincinnati (8)
8. Texas A&M (7)
9. Ohio State (9)
10. Notre Dame (12)
Dropped out: Penn State (10)

Trivia Answers
1. Jesse Palmer (1998)
2. Missouri (2018, at Purdue)
3. 387